Predictions › France › Lille vs Lyon

Ligue 1Sat 21 Nov, 19:45 France time

Lille vs Lyon prediction

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

LilleHome

1.34 : 1.04

expected goals

LyonAway

43%Lille

29%Draw

28%Lyon

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lille vs Lyon is Lille to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Lille to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lille 1.3, Lyon 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.311 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lille 43%, the draw 29% and Lyon 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Lille the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
Lille took 8 points from their last 5 games and Lyon took 4 from 5. Lille come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lille won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Lyon won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Lille score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.0. Lyon score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Lille games and 12 of Lyon games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lille won 0 and Lyon won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lyon 1, Lille 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lillerecent form+1%
Lyonrecent form-3%

Lille form W D W D LLyon form L D W L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lille vs Lyon: Lille shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lille host Lyon in the Ligue 1 on Sat 21 Nov, 19:45 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Our prediction for Lille vs Lyon is Lille to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Lille form

Lille have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Lyon form

Lyon have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lille won 0, Lyon won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lyon 1, Lille 0.

Our call

We expect Lille to score about 1.3 goals and Lyon about 1.0. That points to Lille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.31.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lille	Lyon
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	11
Draws	6	3
Losses	5	6
Goals scored	25	33
Goals conceded	20	27
Scored per game	1.3	1.6
Conceded per game	1.0	1.4
Home record	3W 4D 3L	8W 1D 1L
Away record	6W 2D 2L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lille to win	41%	2.43	2.35	-3.3%
A Draw	29%	3.51	3.25	-7.3%
Lyon to win	28%	3.60	3.00	-16.7%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.32	2.00	-13.9%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.74	-13.0%
Lille -0.5	40%	2.47	2.20	-11.0%
Lyon +0.5	53%	1.90	1.56	-18.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.44
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.61
Both teams to score	48%	2.06
Lille or Draw	72%	1.39
Lyon or Draw	57%	1.75
Lille to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.38
Lyon to win and Over 2.5	14%	6.95
Lille clean sheet	35%	2.83
Lyon clean sheet	26%	3.82

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%

1-011.6%

0-010.0%

0-18.9%

2-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lille vs Lyon?

Our prediction for Lille vs Lyon is Lille to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Lille vs Lyon?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Lille to score 1.3 goals and Lyon 1.0.

Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Lille last 20 games and 11 of Lyon last 20.

How are Lille playing?

How are Lyon playing?

What happened when Lille and Lyon last met?

It ended Lyon 1, Lille 0. In the last 2 meetings Lille won 0 and Lyon won 2.

What is the best bet for Lille vs Lyon?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lille against Lyon. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.