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Predictions › Norway › Lillestrom vs Aalesund
EliteserienSun 8 Nov, 16:00 Norway time

Lillestrom vs Aalesund prediction

Arasen Stadion

LillestromHome
1.85 : 1.61
expected goals
AalesundAway
43%Lillestrom
23%Draw
33%Aalesund
Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score
1.48

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Aalesund is Lillestrom to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.48.

Prediction
Lillestrom to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lillestrom 1.9, Aalesund 1.6
Best bet
Both teams to score at 1.48
Both teams to score
68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score
68% chanceFair price 1.481 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lillestrom to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.141 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lillestrom 43%, the draw 23% and Aalesund 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lillestrom took 8 points from their last 5 games and Aalesund took 6 from 5. Lillestrom come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lillestrom won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Aalesund won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lillestrom score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.9. Aalesund score 1.6 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Lillestrom games and 13 of Aalesund games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Lillestrom won 1 and Aalesund won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Aalesund 1, Lillestrom 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Both teams to score has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Lillestrom form D L W D DAalesund form D W L W LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lillestrom vs Aalesund: Lillestrom shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lillestrom host Aalesund in the Eliteserien on Sun 8 Nov, 16:00 at Arasen Stadion. Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Aalesund is Lillestrom to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.48.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Aalesund form

Aalesund have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Lillestrom won 1, Aalesund won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Aalesund 1, Lillestrom 3.

Our call

We expect Lillestrom to score about 1.9 goals and Aalesund about 1.6. That points to Lillestrom to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.48. Our bold bet is Lillestrom to win and Over 2.5 at 3.14.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LillestromAalesund
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws37
Losses108
Goals scored2432
Goals conceded3842
Scored per game1.21.6
Conceded per game1.92.1
Home record4W 1D 6L2W 5D 2L
Away record3W 2D 4L3W 2D 6L
Clean sheets15%10%
Both teams scored55%80%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.15
Over 2.5 goals67%1.49
Over 3.5 goals46%2.19
Both teams to score68%1.47
Lillestrom or Draw67%1.50
Aalesund or Draw57%1.76
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.533%3.06
Aalesund to win and Over 2.525%4.02
Lillestrom clean sheet20%5.02
Aalesund clean sheet16%6.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.9%
2-18.7%
1-27.5%
2-27.0%
2-05.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Aalesund is Lillestrom to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.48.

What is the score prediction for Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Lillestrom to score 1.9 goals and Aalesund 1.6.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Lillestrom last 20 games and 16 of Aalesund last 20.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Aalesund playing?

Aalesund have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Lillestrom and Aalesund last met?

It ended Aalesund 1, Lillestrom 3. In the last 1 meeting Lillestrom won 1 and Aalesund won 0.

What is the best bet for Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

Both teams to score at 1.48, with a 68% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lillestrom against Aalesund. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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