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Predictions › Europa League › Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Europa LeagueThu 22 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction

Arasen Stadion

LillestromHome
1.66 : 1.63
expected goals
Real SociedadAway
38%Lillestrom
24%Draw
37%Real Sociedad
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad is Lillestrom to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Lillestrom to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lillestrom 1.7, Real Sociedad 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lillestrom to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lillestrom 38%, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lillestrom took 7 points from their last 5 games and Real Sociedad took 9 from 5. Real Sociedad come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lillestrom won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Real Sociedad won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lillestrom score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.6. Real Sociedad score 1.6 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Lillestrom games and 13 of Real Sociedad games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lillestromrest between games-5%
  • Real Sociedadrest between games-5%
Lillestrom form D L L W WReal Sociedad form D W L L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: Lillestrom shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lillestrom host Real Sociedad in the Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 19:00 at Arasen Stadion. Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad is Lillestrom to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lillestrom to score about 1.7 goals and Real Sociedad about 1.6. That points to Lillestrom to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Lillestrom to win and Over 2.5 at 3.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LillestromReal Sociedad
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws36
Losses108
Goals scored2432
Goals conceded3137
Scored per game1.21.6
Conceded per game1.61.9
Home record4W 1D 6L4W 3D 4L
Away record3W 2D 4L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%10%
Both teams scored45%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.57
Over 3.5 goals42%2.40
Both teams to score66%1.52
Lillestrom or Draw63%1.59
Real Sociedad or Draw62%1.63
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.528%3.60
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.527%3.73
Lillestrom clean sheet20%5.10
Real Sociedad clean sheet19%5.25

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
2-18.4%
1-28.2%
2-26.8%
1-05.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad is Lillestrom to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Lillestrom to score 1.7 goals and Real Sociedad 1.6.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Lillestrom last 20 games and 14 of Real Sociedad last 20.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Real Sociedad playing?

Real Sociedad have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lillestrom against Real Sociedad. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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