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Predictions › Norway › Lillestrom vs SK Brann
EliteserienSun 25 Oct, 16:00 Norway time

Lillestrom vs SK Brann prediction

Arasen Stadion

LillestromHome
1.53 : 1.66
expected goals
SK BrannAway
35%Lillestrom
25%Draw
40%SK Brann
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs SK Brann is SK Brann to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
SK Brann to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lillestrom 1.5, SK Brann 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

SK Brann to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lillestrom 35%, the draw 25% and SK Brann 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lillestrom took 5 points from their last 5 games and SK Brann took 6 from 5. SK Brann come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lillestrom won 4 of their last 11 games at home. SK Brann won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lillestrom score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. SK Brann score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Lillestrom games and 15 of SK Brann games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Lillestrom won 1 and SK Brann won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended SK Brann 1, Lillestrom 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lillestromrecent form-1%
  • SK Brannrecent form-3%
  • Lillestromrest between games-5%
Lillestrom form D D L L WSK Brann form D L W L LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lillestrom vs SK Brann: SK Brann shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lillestrom host SK Brann in the Eliteserien on Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 at Arasen Stadion. Our prediction for Lillestrom vs SK Brann is SK Brann to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

SK Brann form

SK Brann have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Lillestrom won 1, SK Brann won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished SK Brann 1, Lillestrom 2.

Our call

We expect Lillestrom to score about 1.5 goals and SK Brann about 1.7. That points to SK Brann to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is SK Brann to win and Over 2.5 at 3.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LillestromSK Brann
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws32
Losses109
Goals scored2533
Goals conceded3229
Scored per game1.31.6
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record4W 1D 6L7W 0D 5L
Away record3W 2D 4L2W 2D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored50%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.62
Over 3.5 goals39%2.53
Both teams to score64%1.56
Lillestrom or Draw60%1.68
SK Brann or Draw65%1.54
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.524%4.10
SK Brann to win and Over 2.529%3.50
Lillestrom clean sheet19%5.25
SK Brann clean sheet22%4.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
1-28.7%
2-18.0%
2-26.6%
0-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs SK Brann is SK Brann to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Lillestrom to score 1.5 goals and SK Brann 1.7.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Lillestrom last 20 games and 14 of SK Brann last 20.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

How are SK Brann playing?

SK Brann have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Lillestrom and SK Brann last met?

It ended SK Brann 1, Lillestrom 2. In the last 1 meeting Lillestrom won 1 and SK Brann won 0.

What is the best bet for Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lillestrom against SK Brann. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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