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Predictions › United Kingdom › Lincoln City vs Burnley
ChampionshipSat 24 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Lincoln City vs Burnley prediction

LNER Stadium

Lincoln CityHome
1.40 : 1.53
expected goals
BurnleyAway
34%Lincoln City
26%Draw
40%Burnley
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lincoln City vs Burnley is Burnley to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Burnley to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lincoln City 1.4, Burnley 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lincoln City 34%, the draw 26% and Burnley 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lincoln City took 6 points from their last 5 games and Burnley took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lincoln City won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Burnley won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lincoln City score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Burnley score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Lincoln City games and 11 of Burnley games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Burnleyrest between games-5%
Lincoln City form D L W W LBurnley form D W D L DHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lincoln City vs Burnley: Burnley shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lincoln City host Burnley in the Championship on Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 at LNER Stadium. Our prediction for Lincoln City vs Burnley is Burnley to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Lincoln City form

Lincoln City have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Burnley form

Burnley have 1 win, 9 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lincoln City to score about 1.4 goals and Burnley about 1.5. That points to Burnley to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Lincoln CityBurnley
Games played2020
Wins121
Draws39
Losses510
Goals scored3122
Goals conceded2437
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.21.9
Home record4W 2D 2L0W 7D 3L
Away record8W 1D 3L1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets40%10%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals56%4/5
Over 3.5 goals34%2/1
Both teams to score60%4/6
Lincoln City or Draw60%4/6
Burnley or Draw66%8/15
Lincoln City to win and Over 2.522%7/2
Burnley to win and Over 2.526%11/4
Lincoln City clean sheet22%7/2
Burnley clean sheet25%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
1-28.7%
2-18.0%
0-17.5%
1-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lincoln City vs Burnley?

Our prediction for Lincoln City vs Burnley is Burnley to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Lincoln City vs Burnley?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Lincoln City to score 1.4 goals and Burnley 1.5.

Will both teams score in Lincoln City vs Burnley?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Lincoln City last 20 games and 15 of Burnley last 20.

How are Lincoln City playing?

Lincoln City have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Burnley playing?

Burnley have 1 win, 9 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Lincoln City vs Burnley?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lincoln City against Burnley. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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