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Predictions › Uruguay › Liverpool vs Peñarol
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 18 Oct, 21:30 Uruguay time

Liverpool vs Peñarol prediction

Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

LiverpoolHome
0.85 : 1.30
expected goals
PeñarolAway
24%Liverpool
30%Draw
46%Peñarol
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Peñarol to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Liverpool 0.8, Peñarol 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-1
14% chanceFair price 6.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Liverpool 24%, the draw 30% and Peñarol 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Liverpool took 10 points from their last 5 games and Peñarol took 13 from 5. Peñarol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Liverpool won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Peñarol won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Liverpool score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. Peñarol score 1.8 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Liverpool games and 10 of Peñarol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Liverpool won 1 and Peñarol won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Peñarol 2, Liverpool 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Liverpoolrecent form+3%
  • Peñarolrecent form+6%
Liverpool form W W D L WPeñarol form W D W W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Peñarol: Peñarol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Peñarol in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 18 Oct, 21:30 at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Peñarol form

Peñarol have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Liverpool won 1, Peñarol won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Peñarol 2, Liverpool 1.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 0.8 goals and Peñarol about 1.3. That points to Peñarol to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-1 at 6.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LiverpoolPeñarol
Games played2020
Wins913
Draws64
Losses53
Goals scored2736
Goals conceded1714
Scored per game1.41.8
Conceded per game0.80.7
Home record5W 3D 2L7W 1D 3L
Away record4W 3D 3L6W 3D 0L
Clean sheets50%35%
Both teams scored45%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.56
Over 2.5 goals37%2.74
Over 3.5 goals17%5.81
Both teams to score43%2.35
Liverpool or Draw54%1.86
Peñarol or Draw76%1.31
Liverpool to win and Over 2.510%9.64
Peñarol to win and Over 2.522%4.52
Liverpool clean sheet27%3.68
Peñarol clean sheet43%2.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-114.3%
1-113.6%
0-012.4%
0-29.8%
1-09.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Peñarol?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Peñarol?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Liverpool to score 0.8 goals and Peñarol 1.3.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Peñarol?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Liverpool last 20 games and 10 of Peñarol last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

Liverpool have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Peñarol playing?

Peñarol have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Liverpool and Peñarol last met?

It ended Peñarol 2, Liverpool 1. In the last 4 meetings Liverpool won 1 and Peñarol won 2.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Peñarol?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Liverpool against Peñarol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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