Predictions › Uruguay › Liverpool vs Progreso

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 3 Oct, 14:00 Uruguay time

Liverpool vs Progreso prediction

Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

LiverpoolHome

1.49 : 0.84

expected goals

ProgresoAway

52%Liverpool

28%Draw

20%Progreso

Eagle safe pickLiverpool or Draw

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Progreso is Liverpool to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Liverpool or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction: Liverpool to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.5, Progreso 0.8
Best bet: Liverpool or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Liverpool or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Liverpool to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Liverpool 52%, the draw 28% and Progreso 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Liverpool the favourite at 1.67.
2
Recent form
Liverpool took 8 points from their last 5 games and Progreso took 12 from 5. Progreso come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Liverpool won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Progreso won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Liverpool score 1.3 goals a game and let in 0.8. Progreso score 0.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Liverpool games and 9 of Progreso games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Liverpool won 1 and Progreso won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Progreso 3, Liverpool 3.
6
The safest bet
Liverpool or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Liverpoolrecent form+1%
Progresorecent form+4%
Liverpoolrest between games-5%
Progresorest between games-5%

Liverpool form W D L W DProgreso form W W L W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Progreso: Liverpool are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Progreso in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 3 Oct, 14:00 at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Progreso is Liverpool to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Liverpool or Draw at 1.29.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Progreso form

Progreso have 7 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Liverpool won 1, Progreso won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Progreso 3, Liverpool 3.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 1.5 goals and Progreso about 0.8. That points to Liverpool to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Liverpool or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 at 3.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Liverpool	Progreso
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	6	0
Losses	5	13
Goals scored	26	16
Goals conceded	15	26
Scored per game	1.3	0.8
Conceded per game	0.8	1.3
Home record	4W 3D 2L	4W 0D 5L
Away record	5W 3D 3L	3W 0D 8L
Clean sheets	55%	15%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Liverpool to win	49%	2.05	1.67	-18.6%
A Draw	27%	3.75	3.55	-5.3%
Progreso to win	20%	4.99	4.50	-9.8%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.33	1.91	-18.1%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.97	1.77	-10.1%
Liverpool -0.5	52%	1.94	1.63	-16.3%
Progreso +0.5	42%	2.37	2.05	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.83
Both teams to score	45%	2.24
Liverpool or Draw	80%	1.26
Progreso or Draw	48%	2.08
Liverpool to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.66
Progreso to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.49
Liverpool clean sheet	43%	2.31
Progreso clean sheet	22%	4.45

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.8%

1-112.9%

2-010.8%

0-010.4%

2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Progreso?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Progreso is Liverpool to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Liverpool or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Progreso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Liverpool to score 1.5 goals and Progreso 0.8.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Progreso?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Liverpool last 20 games and 9 of Progreso last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

How are Progreso playing?

What happened when Liverpool and Progreso last met?

It ended Progreso 3, Liverpool 3. In the last 2 meetings Liverpool won 1 and Progreso won 0.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Progreso?

Liverpool or Draw at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Liverpool against Progreso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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