Predictions › United Kingdom › Liverpool vs Chelsea

Carabao CupWed 28 Oct, 20:00 United Kingdom time

Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction

Anfield

LiverpoolHome

1.42 : 1.53

expected goals

ChelseaAway

35%Liverpool

26%Draw

40%Chelsea

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction: Chelsea to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.4, Chelsea 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1/42 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Chelsea to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Liverpool 35%, the draw 26% and Chelsea 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Chelsea the favourite at 5/4.
2
Recent form
Liverpool took 12 points from their last 5 games and Chelsea took 10 from 5. Liverpool come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Liverpool won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Chelsea won 2 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Liverpool score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Chelsea score 1.9 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Liverpool games and 14 of Chelsea games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Liverpool won 0 and Chelsea won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Liverpool 1, Chelsea 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Liverpoolrecent form+3%
Chelsearecent form+3%
Liverpoolrest between games-5%
Chelsearest between games-5%
Liverpoolteam news-1%
Chelseateam news-1%

Liverpool form D W L W WChelsea form W W L D WHome edge in this league 5% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Chelsea: Chelsea shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Chelsea in the Carabao Cup on Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 at Anfield. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Liverpool won 0, Chelsea won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Liverpool 1, Chelsea 1.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 1.4 goals and Chelsea about 1.5. That points to Chelsea to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Chelsea to win and Over 2.5 at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Liverpool	Chelsea
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	9
Draws	5	2
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	33	38
Goals conceded	32	34
Scored per game	1.6	1.9
Conceded per game	1.6	1.7
Home record	4W 4D 2L	7W 1D 4L
Away record	5W 1D 4L	2W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Liverpool to win	34%	15/8	8/5	-10.8%
A Draw	25%	3/1	5/2	-13.2%
Chelsea to win	41%	7/5	5/4	-5.7%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	7/5	6/5	-9.4%
Under 3.5 goals	55%	5/6	8/13	-11.6%
Liverpool +0.5	54%	5/6	8/15	-17.0%
Chelsea -0.5	42%	11/8	6/5	-6.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1/4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	4/5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	15/8
Both teams to score	60%	4/6
Liverpool or Draw	60%	4/6
Chelsea or Draw	65%	8/15
Liverpool to win and Over 2.5	23%	7/2
Chelsea to win and Over 2.5	26%	11/4
Liverpool clean sheet	22%	7/2
Chelsea clean sheet	24%	3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%

1-28.7%

2-18.1%

0-17.4%

1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Everton Host Chelsea As Weekend European Soccer Kickoff Arrives

Everton take on Chelsea in the Premier League early match as action gets under way across Europe this Saturday.

17 Oct 2026

Premier League

Alonso Calls for Defensive Balance After Chelsea Goal Rush

Chelsea have scored 15 goals and conceded 13 in six games under Xabi Alonso, who says it is too early to tell if they are on track.

17 Oct 2026

Premier League

Gerrard Claims Dropping Wirtz Could Help Liverpool Star Regain Form

Steven Gerrard believes dropping Florian Wirtz temporarily might restore the Liverpool midfielder's confidence and form.

16 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Liverpool to score 1.4 goals and Chelsea 1.5.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Liverpool last 20 games and 10 of Chelsea last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

How are Chelsea playing?

What happened when Liverpool and Chelsea last met?

It ended Liverpool 1, Chelsea 1. In the last 2 meetings Liverpool won 0 and Chelsea won 1.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Liverpool against Chelsea. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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