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Predictions › United Kingdom › Liverpool vs Manchester United
Premier LeagueSun 22 Nov, 16:30 United Kingdom time

Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction

Anfield

LiverpoolHome
1.76 : 1.19
expected goals
Manchester UnitedAway
50%Liverpool
25%Draw
25%Man Utd
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester United is Liverpool to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Liverpool to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Liverpool 1.8, Manchester United 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Liverpool to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Liverpool 50%, the draw 25% and Manchester United 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Liverpool the favourite at 4/6.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Liverpool took 7 points from their last 5 games and Manchester United took 4 from 5. Liverpool come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Liverpool won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Manchester United won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Liverpool score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Manchester United score 1.8 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Liverpool games and 12 of Manchester United games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Liverpool won 0 and Manchester United won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Manchester United 3, Liverpool 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Man Utdrecent form-3%
  • Man Utdteam news-1%
Liverpool form D L L W WMan Utd form D W L L LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Manchester United: Liverpool are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Manchester United in the Premier League on Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 at Anfield. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester United is Liverpool to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Manchester United form

Manchester United have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Liverpool won 0, Manchester United won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Manchester United 3, Liverpool 2.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 1.8 goals and Manchester United about 1.2. That points to Liverpool to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LiverpoolMan Utd
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws66
Losses57
Goals scored3835
Goals conceded3135
Scored per game1.91.8
Conceded per game1.61.8
Home record4W 5D 2L6W 2D 3L
Away record5W 1D 3L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Liverpool to win47%11/104/6-21.3%
A Draw24%3/13/1-0.8%
Manchester United to win25%3/110/3+3.6%
Over 3.5 goals39%8/56/5-15.0%
Under 3.5 goals55%5/68/13-12.0%
Liverpool -0.550%Evens8/13-19.3%
Manchester United +0.544%5/421/20-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals57%4/5
Over 3.5 goals34%15/8
Both teams to score58%8/11
Liverpool or Draw75%1/3
Manchester United or Draw50%Evens
Liverpool to win and Over 2.533%2/1
Manchester United to win and Over 2.516%11/2
Liverpool clean sheet30%9/4
Manchester United clean sheet17%5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%
2-19.6%
1-08.5%
2-08.1%
1-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Man United Target Mauricio Pochettino To Replace Sacked Michael Carrick

Manchester United are closing in on Mauricio Pochettino after sacking Michael Carrick with the club sitting 18th in the league.

15 hours ago
Premier League

Supporters Trust Blames Owners After Michael Carrick Sacked

The Manchester United Supporters Trust believes the club owners are to blame for ongoing problems after manager Michael Carrick was sacked.

15 hours ago
Premier League

Manchester United Fire Michael Carrick as Mauricio Pochettino Negotiations Advance

Manchester United have sacked Michael Carrick after slipping into the relegation zone. Mauricio Pochettino is in talks to replace him.

17 hours ago

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester United?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester United is Liverpool to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Liverpool to score 1.8 goals and Manchester United 1.2.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Liverpool last 20 games and 12 of Manchester United last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

Liverpool have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Manchester United playing?

Manchester United have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Liverpool and Manchester United last met?

It ended Manchester United 3, Liverpool 2. In the last 2 meetings Liverpool won 0 and Manchester United won 2.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Manchester United?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Liverpool against Man Utd. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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