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Predictions › Colombia › Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera AMon 21 Sept, 01:15 Colombia time

Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional prediction

Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pele

Llaneros FCHome
0.85 : 1.73
expected goals
Atlético NacionalAway
18%Llaneros FC
25%Draw
58%Atl. Nacional
Eagle safe pickAtlético Nacional or Draw
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Llaneros FC 0.8, Atlético Nacional 1.7
Best bet
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético Nacional or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Llaneros FC 18%, the draw 25% and Atlético Nacional 58%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Llaneros FC took 3 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Nacional took 12 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Llaneros FC won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Llaneros FC score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. Atlético Nacional score 1.9 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Llaneros FC games and 13 of Atlético Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Llaneros FC won 0 and Atlético Nacional won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Nacional 2, Llaneros FC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético Nacional or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Llaneros FCrecent form-4%
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+4%
  • Llaneros FCrest between games-5%
Llaneros FC form L L W L LAtl. Nacional form W W W W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Llaneros FC host Atlético Nacional in the Colombian Primera A on Mon 21 Sept, 01:15 at Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pele. Our prediction for Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.19.

Llaneros FC form

Llaneros FC have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Llaneros FC won 0, Atlético Nacional won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Nacional 2, Llaneros FC 0.

Our call

We expect Llaneros FC to score about 0.8 goals and Atlético Nacional about 1.7. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Llaneros FCAtl. Nacional
Games played2020
Wins514
Draws81
Losses75
Goals scored1938
Goals conceded2419
Scored per game0.91.9
Conceded per game1.20.9
Home record3W 4D 2L7W 1D 0L
Away record2W 4D 5L7W 0D 5L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals30%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.84
Both teams to score48%2.09
Llaneros FC or Draw42%2.36
Atlético Nacional or Draw82%1.21
Llaneros FC to win and Over 2.59%11.04
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.534%2.95
Llaneros FC clean sheet18%5.65
Atlético Nacional clean sheet43%2.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-112.4%
1-111.8%
0-211.3%
1-29.6%
0-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional?

Our prediction for Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Llaneros FC to score 0.8 goals and Atlético Nacional 1.7.

Will both teams score in Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Llaneros FC last 20 games and 9 of Atlético Nacional last 20.

How are Llaneros FC playing?

Llaneros FC have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Llaneros FC and Atlético Nacional last met?

It ended Atlético Nacional 2, Llaneros FC 0. In the last 2 meetings Llaneros FC won 0 and Atlético Nacional won 2.

What is the best bet for Llaneros FC vs Atlético Nacional?

Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Llaneros FC against Atl. Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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