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Predictions › Belgium › Lommel SK vs KAA Gent
Belgian Pro LeagueSun 1 Nov, 17:30 Belgium time

Lommel SK vs KAA Gent prediction

Soeverein Stadion

Lommel SKHome
1.12 : 1.04
expected goals
KAA GentAway
36%Lommel SK
31%Draw
33%KAA Gent
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lommel SK vs KAA Gent is Lommel SK to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Lommel SK to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lommel SK 1.1, KAA Gent 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lommel SK 36%, the draw 31% and KAA Gent 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lommel SK took 7 points from their last 5 games and KAA Gent took 13 from 5. KAA Gent come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lommel SK won 1 of their last 4 games at home. KAA Gent won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lommel SK score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. KAA Gent score 1.1 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Lommel SK games and 6 of KAA Gent games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lommel SKrecent form-1%
  • KAA Gentrecent form+4%
Lommel SK form D D L L WKAA Gent form D W W D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lommel SK vs KAA Gent: Lommel SK shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lommel SK host KAA Gent in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 at Soeverein Stadion. Our prediction for Lommel SK vs KAA Gent is Lommel SK to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Lommel SK form

Lommel SK have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, W, newest first.

KAA Gent form

KAA Gent have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lommel SK to score about 1.1 goals and KAA Gent about 1.0. That points to Lommel SK to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.03.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Lommel SKKAA Gent
Games played820
Wins38
Draws28
Losses34
Goals scored921
Goals conceded919
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.10.9
Home record1W 1D 2L5W 5D 1L
Away record2W 1D 1L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets38%40%
Both teams scored25%45%
Over 2.5 goals38%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals65%1.55
Over 2.5 goals37%2.71
Over 3.5 goals17%5.73
Both teams to score45%2.24
Lommel SK or Draw67%1.48
KAA Gent or Draw64%1.57
Lommel SK to win and Over 2.517%5.80
KAA Gent to win and Over 2.515%6.60
Lommel SK clean sheet35%2.84
KAA Gent clean sheet33%3.07

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%
0-012.2%
1-012.0%
0-111.1%
2-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lommel SK vs KAA Gent?

Our prediction for Lommel SK vs KAA Gent is Lommel SK to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Lommel SK vs KAA Gent?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Lommel SK to score 1.1 goals and KAA Gent 1.0.

Will both teams score in Lommel SK vs KAA Gent?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Lommel SK last 8 games and 9 of KAA Gent last 20.

How are Lommel SK playing?

Lommel SK have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, W, newest first.

How are KAA Gent playing?

KAA Gent have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Lommel SK vs KAA Gent?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lommel SK against KAA Gent. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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