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Predictions › Belgium › Lommel SK vs Standard Liege
Belgian Pro LeagueSun 22 Nov, 18:15 Belgium time

Lommel SK vs Standard Liege prediction

Soeverein Stadion

Lommel SKHome
1.30 : 1.47
expected goals
Standard LiegeAway
33%Lommel SK
27%Draw
41%Standard Liege
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lommel SK vs Standard Liege is Standard Liege to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Standard Liege to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lommel SK 1.3, Standard Liege 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lommel SK to win
32% chancePrice 3.25+4.5% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lommel SK 33%, the draw 27% and Standard Liege 41%. The bookmakers agree and make Standard Liege the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lommel SK took 9 points from their last 5 games and Standard Liege took 4 from 5. Lommel SK come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lommel SK won 2 of their last 5 games at home. Standard Liege won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lommel SK score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Standard Liege score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Lommel SK games and 13 of Standard Liege games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lommel SKrecent form+3%
  • Standard Liegerecent form-3%
Lommel SK form D W D W DStandard Liege form W D L L LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lommel SK vs Standard Liege: Standard Liege shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lommel SK host Standard Liege in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 22 Nov, 18:15 at Soeverein Stadion. Our prediction for Lommel SK vs Standard Liege is Standard Liege to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Lommel SK form

Lommel SK have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 11 games, with 15 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Standard Liege form

Standard Liege have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lommel SK to score about 1.3 goals and Standard Liege about 1.5. That points to Standard Liege to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Lommel SK to win at 3.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Lommel SKStandard Liege
Games played1120
Wins48
Draws45
Losses37
Goals scored1532
Goals conceded1326
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.21.3
Home record2W 1D 2L4W 3D 4L
Away record2W 3D 1L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets36%25%
Both teams scored36%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lommel SK to win32%3.113.25+4.5%
A Draw26%3.823.65-4.4%
Standard Liege to win39%2.542.00-21.3%
Over 3.5 goals36%2.782.30-17.3%
Under 3.5 goals60%1.681.51-9.8%
Lommel SK +0.550%1.991.71-14.0%
Standard Liege -0.543%2.321.91-17.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.30
Both teams to score57%1.76
Lommel SK or Draw59%1.68
Standard Liege or Draw67%1.49
Lommel SK to win and Over 2.520%4.99
Standard Liege to win and Over 2.525%3.95
Lommel SK clean sheet23%4.37
Standard Liege clean sheet27%3.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-28.8%
0-18.5%
2-17.8%
1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?

Our prediction for Lommel SK vs Standard Liege is Standard Liege to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Lommel SK to score 1.3 goals and Standard Liege 1.5.

Will both teams score in Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of Lommel SK last 11 games and 13 of Standard Liege last 20.

How are Lommel SK playing?

Lommel SK have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 11 games, with 15 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Standard Liege playing?

Standard Liege have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lommel SK against Standard Liege. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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