Predictions › France › Lorient vs Brest

Ligue 1Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 France time

Lorient vs Brest prediction

Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

LorientHome

1.43 : 1.23

expected goals

BrestAway

41%Lorient

27%Draw

32%Brest

Eagle value pickLorient to win

2.55

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lorient vs Brest is Lorient to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lorient to win at 2.55.

Prediction: Lorient to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lorient 1.4, Brest 1.2
Best bet: Lorient to win at 2.55
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

★

Eagle value pick

Lorient to win

42% chancePrice 2.55+7.1% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lorient 41%, the draw 27% and Brest 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Lorient the favourite at 2.55.
2
Recent form
Lorient took 10 points from their last 5 games and Brest took 7 from 5. Lorient come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lorient won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Brest won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Lorient score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Brest score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Lorient games and 10 of Brest games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lorient won 0 and Brest won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Brest 2, Lorient 0.
6
Where the value is
Lorient to win is priced at 2.55. Our fair price is 2.38, so the bookmaker pays about 7.1% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lorientrecent form+1%

Lorient form D W L D WBrest form D W L L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lorient vs Brest: Lorient shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lorient host Brest in the Ligue 1 on Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Our prediction for Lorient vs Brest is Lorient to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lorient to win at 2.55.

Lorient form

Lorient have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Brest form

Brest have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lorient won 0, Brest won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Brest 2, Lorient 0.

Our call

We expect Lorient to score about 1.4 goals and Brest about 1.2. That points to Lorient to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our value bet is Lorient to win at 2.55. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lorient	Brest
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	5
Draws	7	7
Losses	6	8
Goals scored	28	28
Goals conceded	24	32
Scored per game	1.4	1.4
Conceded per game	1.2	1.6
Home record	5W 3D 3L	3W 3D 3L
Away record	2W 4D 3L	2W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lorient to win	42%	2.38	2.55	+7.1%
A Draw	26%	3.81	3.45	-9.4%
Brest to win	30%	3.28	2.60	-20.8%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.83	-11.9%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.09	1.87	-10.7%
Lorient -0.5	40%	2.52	2.35	-6.6%
Brest +0.5	56%	1.79	1.47	-18.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.61
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Lorient or Draw	68%	1.46
Brest or Draw	59%	1.70
Lorient to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.07
Brest to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.41
Lorient clean sheet	29%	3.41
Brest clean sheet	24%	4.18

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-09.3%

2-18.8%

0-17.9%

0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lorient vs Brest?

Our prediction for Lorient vs Brest is Lorient to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lorient to win at 2.55.

What is the score prediction for Lorient vs Brest?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Lorient to score 1.4 goals and Brest 1.2.

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Brest?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Lorient last 20 games and 12 of Brest last 20.

How are Lorient playing?

How are Brest playing?

What happened when Lorient and Brest last met?

It ended Brest 2, Lorient 0. In the last 2 meetings Lorient won 0 and Brest won 1.

What is the best bet for Lorient vs Brest?

Lorient to win at 2.55, with a 42% chance. That price pays about 7.1% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lorient against Brest. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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