Predictions › France › Lorient vs Paris FC

Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct, 18:45 France time

Lorient vs Paris FC prediction

Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

LorientHome

1.24 : 1.43

expected goals

Paris FCAway

32%Lorient

27%Draw

41%Paris FC

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lorient vs Paris FC is Paris FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Paris FC to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lorient 1.2, Paris FC 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lorient 32%, the draw 27% and Paris FC 41%. The bookmakers agree and make Paris FC the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Lorient took 5 points from their last 5 games and Paris FC took 11 from 5. Paris FC come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lorient won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Paris FC won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Lorient score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Paris FC score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Lorient games and 11 of Paris FC games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lorient won 0 and Paris FC won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Lorient 1, Paris FC 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lorientrecent form-1%
Paris FCrecent form+4%

Lorient form L D W L DParis FC form W D W W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lorient vs Paris FC: Paris FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lorient host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 on Sat 10 Oct, 18:45 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Our prediction for Lorient vs Paris FC is Paris FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Lorient form

Lorient have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Paris FC form

Paris FC have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lorient won 0, Paris FC won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Lorient 1, Paris FC 1.

Our call

We expect Lorient to score about 1.2 goals and Paris FC about 1.4. That points to Paris FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lorient	Paris FC
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	9
Draws	7	8
Losses	7	3
Goals scored	28	31
Goals conceded	27	21
Scored per game	1.4	1.6
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	4W 3D 3L	7W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 4D 4L	2W 6D 1L
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lorient to win	31%	3.26	3.00	-8.1%
A Draw	27%	3.77	3.35	-11.1%
Paris FC to win	38%	2.65	2.30	-13.1%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12	1.83	-13.7%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.15	1.87	-13.0%
Lorient +0.5	55%	1.82	1.57	-13.8%
Paris FC -0.5	39%	2.58	2.15	-16.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.59
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Lorient or Draw	59%	1.69
Paris FC or Draw	68%	1.47
Lorient to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.35
Paris FC to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.08
Lorient clean sheet	24%	4.18
Paris FC clean sheet	29%	3.45

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

0-19.2%

1-28.8%

1-07.9%

0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lorient vs Paris FC?

Our prediction for Lorient vs Paris FC is Paris FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Lorient vs Paris FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Lorient to score 1.2 goals and Paris FC 1.4.

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Paris FC?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Lorient last 20 games and 11 of Paris FC last 20.

How are Lorient playing?

How are Paris FC playing?

What happened when Lorient and Paris FC last met?

It ended Lorient 1, Paris FC 1. In the last 2 meetings Lorient won 0 and Paris FC won 1.

What is the best bet for Lorient vs Paris FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lorient against Paris FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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