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Predictions › United Kingdom › Luton Town vs Barnsley
League OneTue 20 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Luton Town vs Barnsley prediction

Kenilworth Road

Luton TownHome
1.69 : 0.98
expected goals
BarnsleyAway
53%Luton
26%Draw
21%Barnsley
Eagle safe pickLuton Town or Draw
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Luton Town vs Barnsley is Luton Town to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Luton Town or Draw at 3/10.

Prediction
Luton Town to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Luton Town 1.7, Barnsley 1.0
Best bet
Luton Town or Draw at 3/10
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Luton Town or Draw
77% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Luton Town to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 9/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Luton Town 53%, the draw 26% and Barnsley 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Luton Town took 7 points from their last 5 games and Barnsley took 2 from 5. Luton Town come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Luton Town won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Barnsley won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Luton Town score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Barnsley score 1.2 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Luton Town games and 12 of Barnsley games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Luton Town won 1 and Barnsley won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Luton Town 2, Barnsley 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Luton Town or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Barnsleyrecent form-4%
  • Lutonrest between games-5%
  • Barnsleyrest between games-5%
Luton form D W W L LBarnsley form D L L D LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Luton Town vs Barnsley: Luton Town are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Luton Town host Barnsley in the League One on Tue 20 Oct, 19:45 at Kenilworth Road. Our prediction for Luton Town vs Barnsley is Luton Town to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Luton Town or Draw at 3/10.

Luton Town form

Luton Town have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Barnsley form

Barnsley have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Luton Town won 1, Barnsley won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Luton Town 2, Barnsley 1.

Our call

We expect Luton Town to score about 1.7 goals and Barnsley about 1.0. That points to Luton Town to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Luton Town or Draw at 3/10. Our bold bet is Luton Town to win and Over 2.5 at 9/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LutonBarnsley
Games played2020
Wins125
Draws47
Losses48
Goals scored4124
Goals conceded2834
Scored per game2.01.2
Conceded per game1.41.7
Home record5W 3D 1L2W 3D 4L
Away record7W 1D 3L3W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1/3
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens
Over 3.5 goals28%13/5
Both teams to score52%10/11
Luton Town or Draw79%2/7
Barnsley or Draw47%11/10
Luton Town to win and Over 2.532%85/40
Barnsley to win and Over 2.512%15/2
Luton Town clean sheet38%13/8
Barnsley clean sheet19%9/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
1-011.0%
2-09.9%
2-19.7%
0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Luton Town vs Barnsley?

Our prediction for Luton Town vs Barnsley is Luton Town to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Luton Town or Draw at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Luton Town vs Barnsley?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Luton Town to score 1.7 goals and Barnsley 1.0.

Will both teams score in Luton Town vs Barnsley?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Luton Town last 20 games and 13 of Barnsley last 20.

How are Luton Town playing?

Luton Town have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Barnsley playing?

Barnsley have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Luton Town and Barnsley last met?

It ended Luton Town 2, Barnsley 1. In the last 2 meetings Luton Town won 1 and Barnsley won 1.

What is the best bet for Luton Town vs Barnsley?

Luton Town or Draw at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Luton against Barnsley. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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