Predictions › United Kingdom › Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers

League OneTue 27 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers prediction

Kenilworth Road

Luton TownHome

1.72 : 1.13

expected goals

Doncaster RoversAway

50%Luton

25%Draw

24%Doncaster

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers is Luton Town to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction: Luton Town to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Luton Town 1.7, Doncaster Rovers 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 2/72 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Luton Town to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 85/401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Luton Town 50%, the draw 25% and Doncaster Rovers 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Luton Town the favourite at 4/5.
2
Recent form
Luton Town took 4 points from their last 5 games and Doncaster Rovers took 6 from 5. Doncaster Rovers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Luton Town won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Doncaster Rovers won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Luton Town score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Doncaster Rovers score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Luton Town games and 8 of Doncaster Rovers games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Luton Town won 1 and Doncaster Rovers won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Doncaster Rovers 1, Luton Town 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lutonrecent form+3%
Doncasterrecent form+3%
Lutonrest between games-5%
Doncasterrest between games-5%

Luton form D W W W LDoncaster form D W W W LHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers: Luton Town are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Luton Town host Doncaster Rovers in the League One on Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 at Kenilworth Road. Our prediction for Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers is Luton Town to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Luton Town form

Luton Town have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Doncaster Rovers form

Doncaster Rovers have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Luton Town won 1, Doncaster Rovers won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Doncaster Rovers 1, Luton Town 1.

Our call

We expect Luton Town to score about 1.7 goals and Doncaster Rovers about 1.1. That points to Luton Town to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Luton Town to win and Over 2.5 at 85/40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Luton	Doncaster
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	7
Draws	4	5
Losses	5	8
Goals scored	40	22
Goals conceded	29	25
Scored per game	2.0	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 1L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	6W 1D 4L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Luton Town to win	48%	21/20	4/5	-12.9%
A Draw	24%	3/1	11/4	-7.2%
Doncaster Rovers to win	23%	10/3	11/4	-11.4%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	10/11	4/7	-16.3%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	5/4	11/10	-6.8%
Luton Town -0.5	49%	21/20	8/11	-14.2%
Doncaster Rovers +0.5	47%	11/10	10/11	-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	2/7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	85/40
Both teams to score	56%	4/5
Luton Town or Draw	76%	1/3
Doncaster Rovers or Draw	50%	Evens
Luton Town to win and Over 2.5	33%	2/1
Doncaster Rovers to win and Over 2.5	15%	6/1
Luton Town clean sheet	32%	85/40
Doncaster Rovers clean sheet	18%	9/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

2-19.7%

1-09.3%

2-08.5%

0-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Our prediction for Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers is Luton Town to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Luton Town to score 1.7 goals and Doncaster Rovers 1.1.

Will both teams score in Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Luton Town last 20 games and 10 of Doncaster Rovers last 20.

How are Luton Town playing?

How are Doncaster Rovers playing?

What happened when Luton Town and Doncaster Rovers last met?

It ended Doncaster Rovers 1, Luton Town 1. In the last 2 meetings Luton Town won 1 and Doncaster Rovers won 0.

What is the best bet for Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Luton against Doncaster. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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