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Predictions › United Kingdom › Luton Town vs Leicester City
League OneSat 24 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Luton Town vs Leicester City prediction

Kenilworth Road

Luton TownHome
1.47 : 1.27
expected goals
Leicester CityAway
41%Luton
27%Draw
32%Leicester
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Luton Town vs Leicester City is Luton Town to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Luton Town to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Luton Town 1.5, Leicester City 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Luton Town 41%, the draw 27% and Leicester City 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Luton Town took 7 points from their last 5 games and Leicester City took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Luton Town won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Leicester City won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Luton Town score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Leicester City score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Luton Town games and 8 of Leicester City games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Leicesterrecent form+1%
Luton form D W W L LLeicester form D L W D WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Luton Town vs Leicester City: Luton Town shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Luton Town host Leicester City in the League One on Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 at Kenilworth Road. Our prediction for Luton Town vs Leicester City is Luton Town to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Luton Town form

Luton Town have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Leicester City form

Leicester City have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Luton Town to score about 1.5 goals and Leicester City about 1.3. That points to Luton Town to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LutonLeicester
Games played2020
Wins125
Draws48
Losses47
Goals scored4122
Goals conceded2828
Scored per game2.01.1
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record5W 3D 1L3W 3D 5L
Away record7W 1D 3L2W 5D 2L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals70%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%3/10
Over 2.5 goals52%10/11
Over 3.5 goals29%12/5
Both teams to score56%4/5
Luton Town or Draw68%1/2
Leicester City or Draw59%4/6
Luton Town to win and Over 2.525%3/1
Leicester City to win and Over 2.519%4/1
Luton Town clean sheet28%13/5
Leicester City clean sheet23%10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
2-18.8%
1-08.7%
1-27.7%
0-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Luton Town vs Leicester City?

Our prediction for Luton Town vs Leicester City is Luton Town to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Luton Town vs Leicester City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Luton Town to score 1.5 goals and Leicester City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Luton Town vs Leicester City?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Luton Town last 20 games and 11 of Leicester City last 20.

How are Luton Town playing?

Luton Town have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Leicester City playing?

Leicester City have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Luton Town vs Leicester City?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Luton against Leicester. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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