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Predictions › Europa League › Lyon vs Crystal Palace
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction

Groupama Stadium

LyonHome
1.68 : 1.30
expected goals
Crystal PalaceAway
46%Lyon
25%Draw
29%C Palace
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lyon vs Crystal Palace is Lyon to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Lyon to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Lyon 1.7, Crystal Palace 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lyon to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Lyon 46%, the draw 25% and Crystal Palace 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Lyon the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Lyon took 11 points from their last 5 games and Crystal Palace took 10 from 5. Lyon come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Lyon won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Crystal Palace won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Lyon score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.3. Crystal Palace score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Lyon games and 16 of Crystal Palace games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lyonrecent form+4%
  • C Palacerecent form+3%
Lyon form W W D W DC Palace form D W L W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lyon vs Crystal Palace: Lyon are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lyon host Crystal Palace in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at Groupama Stadium. Our prediction for Lyon vs Crystal Palace is Lyon to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Lyon form

Lyon have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Crystal Palace form

Crystal Palace have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Lyon to score about 1.7 goals and Crystal Palace about 1.3. That points to Lyon to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Lyon to win and Over 2.5 at 3.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LyonC Palace
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws64
Losses68
Goals scored3031
Goals conceded2631
Scored per game1.51.6
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record5W 2D 3L6W 2D 3L
Away record3W 4D 3L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lyon to win43%2.332.15-7.8%
A Draw25%4.003.65-8.8%
Crystal Palace to win29%3.493.05-12.6%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.891.65-12.8%
Under 2.5 goals40%2.482.15-13.1%
Lyon -0.542%2.362.00-15.2%
Crystal Palace +0.551%1.961.65-16.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.75
Over 3.5 goals35%2.88
Both teams to score60%1.67
Lyon or Draw71%1.41
Crystal Palace or Draw54%1.85
Lyon to win and Over 2.531%3.25
Crystal Palace to win and Over 2.519%5.35
Lyon clean sheet27%3.65
Crystal Palace clean sheet19%5.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
2-19.3%
1-07.9%
2-07.2%
1-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lyon vs Crystal Palace?

Our prediction for Lyon vs Crystal Palace is Lyon to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Lyon vs Crystal Palace?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Lyon to score 1.7 goals and Crystal Palace 1.3.

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Crystal Palace?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Lyon last 20 games and 11 of Crystal Palace last 20.

How are Lyon playing?

Lyon have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Crystal Palace playing?

Crystal Palace have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Lyon vs Crystal Palace?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lyon against C Palace. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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