Predictions › France › Lyon vs Nice

Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 18:45 France time

Lyon vs Nice prediction

Groupama Stadium

LyonHome

1.99 : 0.97

expected goals

NiceAway

60%Lyon

22%Draw

17%Nice

Eagle safe pickLyon or Draw

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lyon vs Nice is Lyon to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lyon or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction: Lyon to win
Chance: 60%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lyon 2.0, Nice 1.0
Best bet: Lyon or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Lyon or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lyon to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 2.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lyon 60%, the draw 22% and Nice 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Lyon the favourite at 1.65.
2
Recent form
Lyon took 11 points from their last 5 games and Nice took 5 from 5. Lyon come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lyon won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Nice won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Lyon score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.3. Nice score 0.8 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Lyon games and 8 of Nice games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lyon won 1 and Nice won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lyon 2, Nice 0.
6
The safest bet
Lyon or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lyonrecent form+4%
Nicerecent form-1%

Lyon form W W D W DNice form W L D L DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lyon vs Nice: Lyon are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lyon host Nice in the Ligue 1 on Sun 18 Oct, 18:45 at Groupama Stadium. Our prediction for Lyon vs Nice is Lyon to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lyon or Draw at 1.25.

Lyon form

Lyon have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Nice form

Nice have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lyon won 1, Nice won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lyon 2, Nice 0.

Our call

We expect Lyon to score about 2.0 goals and Nice about 1.0. That points to Lyon to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Lyon or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Lyon to win and Over 2.5 at 2.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lyon	Nice
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	2
Draws	6	10
Losses	6	8
Goals scored	30	15
Goals conceded	26	30
Scored per game	1.5	0.8
Conceded per game	1.3	1.5
Home record	5W 2D 3L	1W 8D 2L
Away record	3W 4D 3L	1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lyon to win	57%	1.76	1.65	-6.3%
A Draw	22%	4.56	4.00	-12.3%
Nice to win	17%	5.96	4.70	-21.1%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.65	-13.0%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	2.48	2.15	-13.3%
Lyon -0.5	55%	1.83	1.57	-14.2%
Nice +0.5	39%	2.59	2.15	-16.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.76
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.90
Both teams to score	54%	1.84
Lyon or Draw	83%	1.21
Nice or Draw	40%	2.53
Lyon to win and Over 2.5	41%	2.47
Nice to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.67
Lyon clean sheet	38%	2.65
Nice clean sheet	14%	7.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%

2-010.2%

2-110.0%

1-09.7%

3-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lyon vs Nice?

Our prediction for Lyon vs Nice is Lyon to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Lyon or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Lyon vs Nice?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 2-1. We expect Lyon to score 2.0 goals and Nice 1.0.

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Nice?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Lyon last 20 games and 9 of Nice last 20.

How are Lyon playing?

How are Nice playing?

What happened when Lyon and Nice last met?

It ended Lyon 2, Nice 0. In the last 2 meetings Lyon won 1 and Nice won 1.

What is the best bet for Lyon vs Nice?

Lyon or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lyon against Nice. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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