Predictions › Japan › Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka

J1 LeagueSun 18 Oct, 07:00 Japan time

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction

Machida Gion Stadium

Machida ZelviaHome

1.49 : 0.91

expected goals

Avispa FukuokaAway

50%Machida Zelvia

28%Draw

22%A Fukuoka

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Machida Zelvia to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Machida Zelvia 1.5, Avispa Fukuoka 0.9
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Machida Zelvia 50%, the draw 28% and Avispa Fukuoka 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Machida Zelvia took 8 points from their last 5 games and Avispa Fukuoka took 1 from 5. Machida Zelvia come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Machida Zelvia won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Avispa Fukuoka won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Machida Zelvia score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.0. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.2 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Machida Zelvia games and 9 of Avispa Fukuoka games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Machida Zelvia won 0 and Avispa Fukuoka won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Machida Zelvia 0, Avispa Fukuoka 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Machida Zelviarecent form+3%
A Fukuokarecent form-6%

Machida Zelvia form L W D W WA Fukuoka form L L D L LHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: Machida Zelvia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Machida Zelvia host Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League on Sun 18 Oct, 07:00 at Machida Gion Stadium. Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Avispa Fukuoka form

Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Machida Zelvia won 0, Avispa Fukuoka won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Machida Zelvia 0, Avispa Fukuoka 0.

Our call

We expect Machida Zelvia to score about 1.5 goals and Avispa Fukuoka about 0.9. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.76.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Machida Zelvia	A Fukuoka
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	5
Draws	8	7
Losses	2	8
Goals scored	35	24
Goals conceded	20	26
Scored per game	1.8	1.2
Conceded per game	1.0	1.3
Home record	6W 2D 2L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	4W 6D 0L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.43
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.34
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.56
Both teams to score	47%	2.14
Machida Zelvia or Draw	78%	1.29
Avispa Fukuoka or Draw	50%	2.00
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.70
Avispa Fukuoka to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.13
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	40%	2.47
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet	23%	4.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

1-012.9%

2-010.1%

0-09.9%

2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Machida Zelvia to score 1.5 goals and Avispa Fukuoka 0.9.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Machida Zelvia last 20 games and 12 of Avispa Fukuoka last 20.

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

How are Avispa Fukuoka playing?

What happened when Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka last met?

It ended Machida Zelvia 0, Avispa Fukuoka 0. In the last 1 meeting Machida Zelvia won 0 and Avispa Fukuoka won 0.

What is the best bet for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Machida Zelvia against A Fukuoka. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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