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Predictions › Japan › Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
J1 LeagueSun 1 Nov, 06:00 Japan time

Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka prediction

Machida Gion Stadium

Machida ZelviaHome
1.61 : 1.08
expected goals
Gamba OsakaAway
49%Machida Zelvia
26%Draw
25%Gamba Osaka
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Machida Zelvia to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Machida Zelvia 1.6, Gamba Osaka 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Machida Zelvia 49%, the draw 26% and Gamba Osaka 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Machida Zelvia took 10 points from their last 5 games and Gamba Osaka took 4 from 5. Machida Zelvia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Machida Zelvia won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Gamba Osaka won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Machida Zelvia score 2.1 goals a game and let in 0.8. Gamba Osaka score 1.4 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Machida Zelvia games and 10 of Gamba Osaka games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Machida Zelviarecent form+3%
  • Gamba Osakarecent form-1%
  • Machida Zelviarest between games-5%
  • Gamba Osakarest between games-5%
Machida Zelvia form D W W W LGamba Osaka form D D W L LHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka: Machida Zelvia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Machida Zelvia host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League on Sun 1 Nov, 06:00 at Machida Gion Stadium. Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 12 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Gamba Osaka form

Gamba Osaka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Machida Zelvia to score about 1.6 goals and Gamba Osaka about 1.1. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka
Games played2020
Wins125
Draws77
Losses18
Goals scored4328
Goals conceded1730
Scored per game2.11.4
Conceded per game0.81.5
Home record6W 2D 1L2W 2D 4L
Away record6W 5D 0L3W 5D 4L
Clean sheets40%10%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.32
Over 2.5 goals50%1.98
Over 3.5 goals28%3.52
Both teams to score54%1.87
Machida Zelvia or Draw75%1.33
Gamba Osaka or Draw51%1.96
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.530%3.34
Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.514%7.05
Machida Zelvia clean sheet34%2.94
Gamba Osaka clean sheet20%5.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-010.2%
2-19.5%
2-08.8%
0-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Machida Zelvia to score 1.6 goals and Gamba Osaka 1.1.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Machida Zelvia last 20 games and 13 of Gamba Osaka last 20.

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

Machida Zelvia have 12 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Gamba Osaka playing?

Gamba Osaka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Machida Zelvia against Gamba Osaka. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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