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Predictions › Japan › Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 LeagueSun 8 Nov, 05:00 Japan time

Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction

Machida Gion Stadium

Machida ZelviaHome
1.44 : 1.28
expected goals
Sanfrecce HiroshimaAway
40%Machida Zelvia
27%Draw
33%Sanfreece
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Machida Zelvia to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Machida Zelvia 1.4, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Machida Zelvia 40%, the draw 27% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Machida Zelvia took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sanfrecce Hiroshima took 12 from 5. Sanfrecce Hiroshima come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Machida Zelvia won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Machida Zelvia score 2.0 goals a game and let in 0.8. Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.2 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Machida Zelvia games and 12 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Machida Zelvia won 0 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2, Machida Zelvia 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Machida Zelviarecent form+6%
  • Sanfreecerecent form+3%
Machida Zelvia form D W W W WSanfreece form D L W W WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Machida Zelvia shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Machida Zelvia host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League on Sun 8 Nov, 05:00 at Machida Gion Stadium. Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 12 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Machida Zelvia won 0, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2, Machida Zelvia 1.

Our call

We expect Machida Zelvia to score about 1.4 goals and Sanfrecce Hiroshima about 1.3. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.78.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Machida ZelviaSanfreece
Games played2020
Wins1213
Draws74
Losses13
Goals scored4144
Goals conceded1517
Scored per game2.02.2
Conceded per game0.80.8
Home record6W 2D 1L7W 2D 0L
Away record6W 5D 0L6W 2D 3L
Clean sheets45%50%
Both teams scored55%40%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.31
Over 2.5 goals51%1.95
Over 3.5 goals29%3.43
Both teams to score56%1.79
Machida Zelvia or Draw67%1.49
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw60%1.67
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.525%4.07
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win and Over 2.520%5.05
Machida Zelvia clean sheet28%3.61
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet24%4.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
2-18.7%
1-08.7%
1-27.8%
0-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Machida Zelvia to score 1.4 goals and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.3.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Machida Zelvia last 20 games and 8 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima last 20.

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

Machida Zelvia have 12 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Sanfrecce Hiroshima playing?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima last met?

It ended Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2, Machida Zelvia 1. In the last 1 meeting Machida Zelvia won 0 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 1.

What is the best bet for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Machida Zelvia against Sanfreece. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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