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Predictions › Japan › Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 LeagueSat 21 Nov, 05:00 Japan time

Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki prediction

Machida Gion Stadium

Machida ZelviaHome
1.49 : 0.75
expected goals
V-Varen NagasakiAway
54%Machida Zelvia
28%Draw
18%V-Varen
Eagle safe pickMachida Zelvia or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Machida Zelvia to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Machida Zelvia 1.5, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.8
Best bet
Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Machida Zelvia or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Machida Zelvia 54%, the draw 28% and V-Varen Nagasaki 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Machida Zelvia took 9 points from their last 5 games and V-Varen Nagasaki took 4 from 5. Machida Zelvia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 10 games at home. V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Machida Zelvia score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.7. V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Machida Zelvia games and 10 of V-Varen Nagasaki games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Machida Zelvia or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Machida Zelviarecent form+3%
  • V-Varenrecent form-3%
Machida Zelvia form D W D W DV-Varen form D L L W LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki: Machida Zelvia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Machida Zelvia host V-Varen Nagasaki in the J1 League on Sat 21 Nov, 05:00 at Machida Gion Stadium. Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.23.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 11 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, W, newest first.

V-Varen Nagasaki form

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Machida Zelvia to score about 1.5 goals and V-Varen Nagasaki about 0.8. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Machida ZelviaV-Varen
Games played2020
Wins116
Draws85
Losses19
Goals scored3825
Goals conceded1429
Scored per game1.91.3
Conceded per game0.71.4
Home record5W 4D 1L5W 3D 2L
Away record6W 4D 0L1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets50%20%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.51
Over 2.5 goals39%2.58
Over 3.5 goals19%5.31
Both teams to score42%2.41
Machida Zelvia or Draw82%1.22
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw46%2.18
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.527%3.68
V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.58%12.81
Machida Zelvia clean sheet47%2.11
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet23%4.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.2%
1-112.6%
2-011.8%
0-011.4%
2-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Our prediction for Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Machida Zelvia to score 1.5 goals and V-Varen Nagasaki 0.8.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Machida Zelvia last 20 games and 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki last 20.

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

Machida Zelvia have 11 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, W, newest first.

How are V-Varen Nagasaki playing?

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Machida Zelvia against V-Varen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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