Predictions › Germany › Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen

BundesligaSat 10 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

MEWA ARENA

MainzHome

1.43 : 1.70

expected goals

Bayer LeverkusenAway

32%Mainz

25%Draw

43%Leverkusen

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Mainz 1.4, Bayer Leverkusen 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Mainz 32%, the draw 25% and Bayer Leverkusen 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Mainz took 10 points from their last 5 games and Bayer Leverkusen took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Mainz won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Mainz score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Bayer Leverkusen score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Mainz games and 10 of Bayer Leverkusen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Mainz won 0 and Bayer Leverkusen won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Bayer Leverkusen 1, Mainz 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Mainzrecent form+3%
Leverkusenrecent form+3%

Mainz form W L W D WLeverkusen form W W D W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mainz host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Sat 10 Oct, 13:30 at MEWA ARENA. Our prediction for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Mainz form

Mainz have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mainz won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Bayer Leverkusen 1, Mainz 1.

Our call

We expect Mainz to score about 1.4 goals and Bayer Leverkusen about 1.7. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Mainz	Leverkusen
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	6	8
Losses	5	4
Goals scored	33	38
Goals conceded	26	27
Scored per game	1.6	1.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	3W 3D 4L	5W 5D 1L
Away record	6W 3D 1L	3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Mainz to win	31%	3.26	2.75	-15.7%
A Draw	24%	4.14	3.65	-11.8%
Bayer Leverkusen to win	40%	2.48	2.15	-13.2%
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.51	2.05	-18.2%
Under 3.5 goals	54%	1.86	1.67	-10.3%
Mainz +0.5	53%	1.89	1.61	-15.0%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5	41%	2.45	2.05	-16.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.65
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.62
Both teams to score	63%	1.59
Mainz or Draw	57%	1.76
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	68%	1.47
Mainz to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.60
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.31
Mainz clean sheet	18%	5.46
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	24%	4.18

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

1-29.0%

2-17.6%

0-16.8%

2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Is Liverpool Giving Up on Florian Wirtz Too Soon?

Florian Wirtz has struggled to match his Leverkusen form at Liverpool, but stats show why the club made a record investment.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our prediction for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Mainz to score 1.4 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 1.7.

Will both teams score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Mainz last 20 games and 13 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20.

How are Mainz playing?

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

What happened when Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen last met?

It ended Bayer Leverkusen 1, Mainz 1. In the last 2 meetings Mainz won 0 and Bayer Leverkusen won 1.

What is the best bet for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mainz against Leverkusen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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