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Predictions › Spain › Málaga vs Espanyol
LaLigaFri 9 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Málaga vs Espanyol prediction

La Rosaleda

MálagaHome
1.27 : 1.26
expected goals
EspanyolAway
36%Málaga
28%Draw
36%Espanyol
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Málaga vs Espanyol is Málaga to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Málaga to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Málaga 1.3, Espanyol 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Málaga 36%, the draw 28% and Espanyol 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Málaga the favourite at 2.60.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Málaga took 2 points from their last 5 games and Espanyol took 4 from 5. Espanyol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Málaga won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Espanyol won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Málaga score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Espanyol score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Málaga games and 11 of Espanyol games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Málagarecent form-4%
  • Espanyolrecent form-3%
Málaga form L L D D LEspanyol form L L W D LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Málaga vs Espanyol: Málaga shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Málaga host Espanyol in the LaLiga on Fri 9 Oct, 19:00 at La Rosaleda. Our prediction for Málaga vs Espanyol is Málaga to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Málaga form

Málaga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Espanyol form

Espanyol have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Málaga to score about 1.3 goals and Espanyol about 1.3. That points to Málaga to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MálagaEspanyol
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws76
Losses610
Goals scored2722
Goals conceded2628
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record2W 5D 2L2W 4D 4L
Away record5W 2D 4L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Málaga to win34%2.962.60-12.0%
A Draw27%3.663.20-12.5%
Espanyol to win34%2.982.70-9.5%
Over 2.5 goals43%2.312.00-13.2%
Under 2.5 goals50%1.991.74-12.3%
Málaga -0.535%2.872.40-16.5%
Espanyol +0.561%1.631.46-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.15
Over 3.5 goals25%4.01
Both teams to score52%1.91
Málaga or Draw64%1.55
Espanyol or Draw64%1.56
Málaga to win and Over 2.520%4.93
Espanyol to win and Over 2.520%4.99
Málaga clean sheet28%3.53
Espanyol clean sheet28%3.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-09.3%
0-19.3%
0-08.7%
2-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Málaga vs Espanyol?

Our prediction for Málaga vs Espanyol is Málaga to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Málaga vs Espanyol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Málaga to score 1.3 goals and Espanyol 1.3.

Will both teams score in Málaga vs Espanyol?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Málaga last 20 games and 13 of Espanyol last 20.

How are Málaga playing?

Málaga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Espanyol playing?

Espanyol have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Málaga vs Espanyol?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Málaga against Espanyol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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