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Predictions › Spain › Málaga vs Real Sociedad
LaLigaSun 18 Oct, 16:30 Spain time

Málaga vs Real Sociedad prediction

La Rosaleda

MálagaHome
1.27 : 1.54
expected goals
Real SociedadAway
31%Málaga
26%Draw
43%Real Sociedad
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Málaga vs Real Sociedad is Real Sociedad to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Real Sociedad to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Málaga 1.3, Real Sociedad 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Málaga 31%, the draw 26% and Real Sociedad 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Sociedad the favourite at 2.20.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Málaga took 2 points from their last 5 games and Real Sociedad took 7 from 5. Real Sociedad come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Málaga won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Real Sociedad won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Málaga score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Real Sociedad score 1.6 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Málaga games and 13 of Real Sociedad games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Málagarecent form-4%
Málaga form L L D D LReal Sociedad form W L L W DHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Málaga vs Real Sociedad: Real Sociedad shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Málaga host Real Sociedad in the LaLiga on Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 at La Rosaleda. Our prediction for Málaga vs Real Sociedad is Real Sociedad to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Málaga form

Málaga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Málaga to score about 1.3 goals and Real Sociedad about 1.5. That points to Real Sociedad to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5 at 3.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MálagaReal Sociedad
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws76
Losses69
Goals scored2731
Goals conceded2638
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.31.9
Home record2W 5D 2L3W 3D 4L
Away record5W 2D 4L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets25%10%
Both teams scored60%70%
Over 2.5 goals40%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Málaga to win30%3.303.10-6.1%
A Draw26%3.853.45-10.4%
Real Sociedad to win40%2.512.20-12.2%
Over 2.5 goals50%2.011.74-13.3%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.302.00-13.0%
Málaga +0.552%1.911.63-14.8%
Real Sociedad -0.541%2.452.05-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.23
Both teams to score57%1.75
Málaga or Draw57%1.75
Real Sociedad or Draw69%1.44
Málaga to win and Over 2.519%5.28
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.527%3.69
Málaga clean sheet22%4.64
Real Sociedad clean sheet28%3.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-29.1%
0-18.6%
2-17.5%
0-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Málaga vs Real Sociedad?

Our prediction for Málaga vs Real Sociedad is Real Sociedad to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Málaga vs Real Sociedad?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Málaga to score 1.3 goals and Real Sociedad 1.5.

Will both teams score in Málaga vs Real Sociedad?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Málaga last 20 games and 14 of Real Sociedad last 20.

How are Málaga playing?

Málaga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Real Sociedad playing?

Real Sociedad have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Málaga vs Real Sociedad?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Málaga against Real Sociedad. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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