Predictions › Sweden › Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS

AllsvenskanSun 13 Sept, 14:30 Sweden time

Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS prediction

Eleda Stadion

Malmö FFHome

2.37 : 1.12

expected goals

Örgryte ISAway

65%Malmö

19%Draw

16%Örgryte

Eagle safe pickMalmö FF to win

1.44

Quick answer

Our prediction for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS is Malmö FF to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Malmö FF to win at 1.44.

Prediction: Malmö FF to win
Chance: 65%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Malmö FF 2.4, Örgryte IS 1.1
Best bet: Malmö FF to win at 1.44
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Malmö FF to win

65% chancePrice 1.441 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Malmö FF to win and both score

33% chanceFair price 3.021 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Malmö FF 65%, the draw 19% and Örgryte IS 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Malmö FF the favourite at 1.44.
2
Recent form
Malmö FF took 7 points from their last 5 games and Örgryte IS took 2 from 5. Malmö FF come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Malmö FF won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Örgryte IS won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Malmö FF score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.5. Örgryte IS score 1.1 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Malmö FF games and 9 of Örgryte IS games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Malmö FF won 0 and Örgryte IS won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Örgryte IS 1, Malmö FF 1.
6
The safest bet
Malmö FF to win has a 65% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Örgryterecent form-4%

Malmö form D W L W LÖrgryte form D L D L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS: Malmö FF are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Malmö FF host Örgryte IS in the Allsvenskan on Sun 13 Sept, 14:30 at Eleda Stadion. Our prediction for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS is Malmö FF to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Malmö FF to win at 1.44.

Malmö FF form

Malmö FF have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Örgryte IS form

Örgryte IS have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Malmö FF won 0, Örgryte IS won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Örgryte IS 1, Malmö FF 1.

Our call

We expect Malmö FF to score about 2.4 goals and Örgryte IS about 1.1. That points to Malmö FF to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Malmö FF to win at 1.44. Our bold bet is Malmö FF to win and both score at 3.02.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Malmö	Örgryte
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	3
Draws	3	6
Losses	8	11
Goals scored	33	21
Goals conceded	30	41
Scored per game	1.6	1.1
Conceded per game	1.5	2.0
Home record	3W 1D 6L	1W 6D 3L
Away record	6W 2D 2L	2W 0D 8L
Clean sheets	35%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Malmö FF to win	65%	1.53	1.44	-5.5%
A Draw	18%	5.66	4.90	-13.4%
Örgryte IS to win	14%	7.06	6.00	-15.0%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	2.55	2.30	-9.9%
Under 3.5 goals	58%	1.71	1.57	-8.3%
Malmö FF -1.5	41%	2.43	2.10	-13.5%
Örgryte IS +1.5	56%	1.78	1.67	-6.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.15
Over 2.5 goals	68%	1.48
Over 3.5 goals	46%	2.17
Both teams to score	61%	1.63
Malmö FF or Draw	84%	1.19
Örgryte IS or Draw	35%	2.83
Malmö FF to win and Over 2.5	49%	2.03
Örgryte IS to win and Over 2.5	11%	8.99
Malmö FF clean sheet	33%	3.06
Örgryte IS clean sheet	9%	10.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.6%

2-08.6%

1-18.6%

3-17.6%

3-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

Our prediction for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS is Malmö FF to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Malmö FF to win at 1.44.

What is the score prediction for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Malmö FF to score 2.4 goals and Örgryte IS 1.1.

Will both teams score in Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Malmö FF last 20 games and 10 of Örgryte IS last 20.

How are Malmö FF playing?

How are Örgryte IS playing?

What happened when Malmö FF and Örgryte IS last met?

It ended Örgryte IS 1, Malmö FF 1. In the last 1 meeting Malmö FF won 0 and Örgryte IS won 0.

What is the best bet for Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS?

Malmö FF to win at 1.44, with a 65% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Malmö against Örgryte. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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