Predictions › South Africa › Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City

South African PremiershipSat 31 Oct, 20:15 South Africa time

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City prediction

Royal Bafokeng Stadium

Mamelodi SundownsHome

2.50 : 0.73

expected goals

Durban CityAway

75%M Sundowns

16%Draw

8%Durban

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City is Mamelodi Sundowns to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Mamelodi Sundowns to win
Chance: 75%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Mamelodi Sundowns 2.5, Durban City 0.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mamelodi Sundowns to win and both score

31% chanceFair price 3.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns 75%, the draw 16% and Durban City 8%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Mamelodi Sundowns took 13 points from their last 5 games and Durban City took 5 from 5. Mamelodi Sundowns come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Mamelodi Sundowns won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Durban City won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Durban City score 0.7 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Mamelodi Sundowns games and 3 of Durban City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Mamelodi Sundowns won 2 and Durban City won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Durban City 0, Mamelodi Sundowns 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

M Sundownsrecent form+4%
Durbanrecent form-1%

M Sundowns form D W W D WDurban form D L D L WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City: Mamelodi Sundowns are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mamelodi Sundowns host Durban City in the South African Premiership on Sat 31 Oct, 20:15 at Royal Bafokeng Stadium. Our prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City is Mamelodi Sundowns to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Mamelodi Sundowns form

Mamelodi Sundowns have 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Durban City form

Durban City have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mamelodi Sundowns won 2, Durban City won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Durban City 0, Mamelodi Sundowns 1.

Our call

We expect Mamelodi Sundowns to score about 2.5 goals and Durban City about 0.7. That points to Mamelodi Sundowns to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Mamelodi Sundowns to win and both score at 3.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	M Sundowns	Durban
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	3
Draws	5	9
Losses	1	8
Goals scored	48	13
Goals conceded	19	20
Scored per game	2.4	0.7
Conceded per game	0.9	1.0
Home record	8W 2D 0L	1W 6D 3L
Away record	6W 3D 1L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	40%	35%
Both teams scored	60%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	15%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.60
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.47
Both teams to score	48%	2.07
Mamelodi Sundowns or Draw	92%	1.09
Durban City or Draw	25%	4.06
Mamelodi Sundowns to win and Over 2.5	54%	1.86
Durban City to win and Over 2.5	5%	20.32
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet	48%	2.09
Durban City clean sheet	8%	12.15

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.3%

3-010.2%

1-09.4%

2-19.0%

1-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?

Our prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City is Mamelodi Sundowns to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 1-0. We expect Mamelodi Sundowns to score 2.5 goals and Durban City 0.7.

Will both teams score in Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Mamelodi Sundowns last 20 games and 7 of Durban City last 20.

How are Mamelodi Sundowns playing?

How are Durban City playing?

What happened when Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City last met?

It ended Durban City 0, Mamelodi Sundowns 1. In the last 2 meetings Mamelodi Sundowns won 2 and Durban City won 0.

What is the best bet for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in M Sundowns against Durban. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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