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Predictions › Italy › Mantova vs Palermo
Serie BSat 17 Oct, 15:15 Italy time

Mantova vs Palermo prediction

Stadio Danilo Martelli

MantovaHome
1.51 : 1.41
expected goals
PalermoAway
39%Mantova
26%Draw
35%Palermo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mantova vs Palermo is Mantova to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Mantova to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Mantova 1.5, Palermo 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mantova to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.971 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Mantova 39%, the draw 26% and Palermo 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Mantova took 11 points from their last 5 games and Palermo took 13 from 5. Palermo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Mantova won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Palermo won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Mantova score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Palermo score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Mantova games and 10 of Palermo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Mantova won 0 and Palermo won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Palermo 2, Mantova 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mantovarecent form+1%
  • Palermorecent form+6%
Mantova form D W D L WPalermo form W D W W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mantova vs Palermo: Mantova shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mantova host Palermo in the Serie B on Sat 17 Oct, 15:15 at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Our prediction for Mantova vs Palermo is Mantova to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Mantova form

Mantova have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Palermo form

Palermo have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mantova won 0, Palermo won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Palermo 2, Mantova 1.

Our call

We expect Mantova to score about 1.5 goals and Palermo about 1.4. That points to Mantova to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Mantova to win and Over 2.5 at 3.97.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MantovaPalermo
Games played2020
Wins1012
Draws44
Losses64
Goals scored3131
Goals conceded2522
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record7W 2D 1L9W 1D 0L
Away record3W 2D 5L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.79
Over 3.5 goals33%2.99
Both teams to score60%1.68
Mantova or Draw65%1.54
Palermo or Draw61%1.64
Mantova to win and Over 2.525%3.92
Palermo to win and Over 2.523%4.43
Mantova clean sheet24%4.11
Palermo clean sheet22%4.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
2-18.7%
1-28.1%
1-07.4%
0-16.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mantova vs Palermo?

Our prediction for Mantova vs Palermo is Mantova to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Mantova vs Palermo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Mantova to score 1.5 goals and Palermo 1.4.

Will both teams score in Mantova vs Palermo?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Mantova last 20 games and 10 of Palermo last 20.

How are Mantova playing?

Mantova have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Palermo playing?

Palermo have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Mantova and Palermo last met?

It ended Palermo 2, Mantova 1. In the last 2 meetings Mantova won 0 and Palermo won 1.

What is the best bet for Mantova vs Palermo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mantova against Palermo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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