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Predictions › Italy › Mantova vs Pisa
Serie BSun 20 Sept, 15:15 Italy time

Mantova vs Pisa prediction

Stadio Danilo Martelli

MantovaHome
1.63 : 1.31
expected goals
PisaAway
44%Mantova
26%Draw
30%Pisa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mantova vs Pisa is Mantova to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Mantova to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Mantova 1.6, Pisa 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mantova to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Mantova 44%, the draw 26% and Pisa 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Mantova took 10 points from their last 5 games and Pisa took 6 from 5. Mantova come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Mantova won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Pisa won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Mantova score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Pisa score 0.7 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Mantova games and 14 of Pisa games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mantovarecent form+3%
  • Pisarecent form+1%
  • Pisarest between games-5%
Mantova form D L W W WPisa form L W W L WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mantova vs Pisa: Mantova shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mantova host Pisa in the Serie B on Sun 20 Sept, 15:15 at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Our prediction for Mantova vs Pisa is Mantova to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Mantova form

Mantova have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Pisa form

Pisa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 16 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Mantova to score about 1.6 goals and Pisa about 1.3. That points to Mantova to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Mantova to win and Over 2.5 at 3.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MantovaPisa
Games played2020
Wins103
Draws41
Losses616
Goals scored3114
Goals conceded2640
Scored per game1.60.7
Conceded per game1.32.0
Home record7W 1D 1L2W 0D 9L
Away record3W 3D 5L1W 1D 7L
Clean sheets25%10%
Both teams scored55%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.95
Both teams to score59%1.68
Mantova or Draw70%1.43
Pisa or Draw56%1.80
Mantova to win and Over 2.529%3.41
Pisa to win and Over 2.519%5.17
Mantova clean sheet27%3.71
Pisa clean sheet20%5.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
2-19.2%
1-07.9%
1-27.4%
2-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mantova vs Pisa?

Our prediction for Mantova vs Pisa is Mantova to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Mantova vs Pisa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Mantova to score 1.6 goals and Pisa 1.3.

Will both teams score in Mantova vs Pisa?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Mantova last 20 games and 8 of Pisa last 20.

How are Mantova playing?

Mantova have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Pisa playing?

Pisa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 16 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Mantova vs Pisa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mantova against Pisa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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