Predictions › Italy › Mantova vs Sampdoria

Serie BSun 13 Sept, 15:15 Italy time

Mantova vs Sampdoria prediction

Stadio Danilo Martelli

MantovaHome

1.51 : 1.05

expected goals

SampdoriaAway

47%Mantova

27%Draw

26%Sampdoria

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mantova vs Sampdoria is Mantova to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Mantova to win
Chance: 47%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Mantova 1.5, Sampdoria 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mantova to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Mantova 47%, the draw 27% and Sampdoria 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Mantova the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Mantova took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sampdoria took 4 from 5. Mantova come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Mantova won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Sampdoria won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Mantova score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Sampdoria score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Mantova games and 9 of Sampdoria games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Mantova won 2 and Sampdoria won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Mantova 2, Sampdoria 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Mantovarecent form+3%
Sampdoriarecent form-6%

Mantova form D L W W WSampdoria form L L D L LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mantova vs Sampdoria: Mantova are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mantova host Sampdoria in the Serie B on Sun 13 Sept, 15:15 at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Our prediction for Mantova vs Sampdoria is Mantova to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Mantova form

Mantova have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Sampdoria form

Sampdoria have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mantova won 2, Sampdoria won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Mantova 2, Sampdoria 1.

Our call

We expect Mantova to score about 1.5 goals and Sampdoria about 1.1. That points to Mantova to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Mantova to win and Over 2.5 at 3.90.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Mantova	Sampdoria
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	7
Draws	4	5
Losses	6	8
Goals scored	31	18
Goals conceded	26	26
Scored per game	1.6	0.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	7W 1D 1L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 3D 5L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Mantova to win	45%	2.22	2.25	+1.3%
A Draw	26%	3.89	3.15	-19.0%
Sampdoria to win	24%	4.14	3.40	-18.0%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	2.00	-10.6%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.74	-8.0%
Mantova -0.5	42%	2.40	2.15	-10.5%
Sampdoria +0.5	56%	1.79	1.63	-9.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.93
Both teams to score	51%	1.95
Mantova or Draw	74%	1.35
Sampdoria or Draw	53%	1.89
Mantova to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.67
Sampdoria to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.12
Mantova clean sheet	35%	2.86
Sampdoria clean sheet	22%	4.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-010.9%

2-19.2%

2-08.8%

0-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mantova vs Sampdoria?

Our prediction for Mantova vs Sampdoria is Mantova to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Mantova vs Sampdoria?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Mantova to score 1.5 goals and Sampdoria 1.1.

Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Mantova last 20 games and 9 of Sampdoria last 20.

How are Mantova playing?

How are Sampdoria playing?

What happened when Mantova and Sampdoria last met?

It ended Mantova 2, Sampdoria 1. In the last 2 meetings Mantova won 2 and Sampdoria won 0.

What is the best bet for Mantova vs Sampdoria?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mantova against Sampdoria. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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