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Predictions › Portugal › Maritimo vs FC Porto
Primeira LigaSat 10 Oct, 17:00 Portugal time

Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction

Estádio do Marítimo

MaritimoHome
0.76 : 2.08
expected goals
FC PortoAway
12%Maritimo
21%Draw
67%FC Porto
Eagle safe pickFC Porto to win
1.39

Quick answer

Our prediction for Maritimo vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is FC Porto to win at 1.39.

Prediction
FC Porto to win
Chance
67%
Most likely score
0-2
Expected goals
Maritimo 0.8, FC Porto 2.1
Best bet
FC Porto to win at 1.39
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

FC Porto to win
68% chancePrice 1.391 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Porto to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 2.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Maritimo 12%, the draw 21% and FC Porto 67%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Porto the favourite at 1.39.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Maritimo took 2 points from their last 5 games and FC Porto took 12 from 5. FC Porto come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Maritimo won 1 of their last 3 games at home. FC Porto won 6 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Maritimo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.7. FC Porto score 1.9 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Maritimo games and 10 of FC Porto games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    FC Porto to win has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Maritimorecent form-4%
  • FC Portorecent form+4%
Maritimo form D L L L DFC Porto form W W L W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Maritimo vs FC Porto: FC Porto are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Maritimo host FC Porto in the Primeira Liga on Sat 10 Oct, 17:00 at Estádio do Marítimo. Our prediction for Maritimo vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is FC Porto to win at 1.39.

Maritimo form

Maritimo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 8 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

FC Porto form

FC Porto have 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Maritimo to score about 0.8 goals and FC Porto about 2.1. That points to FC Porto to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is FC Porto to win at 1.39. Our bold bet is FC Porto to win and Over 2.5 at 2.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MaritimoFC Porto
Games played720
Wins215
Draws22
Losses33
Goals scored838
Goals conceded1215
Scored per game1.11.9
Conceded per game1.70.8
Home record1W 1D 1L9W 2D 1L
Away record1W 1D 2L6W 0D 2L
Clean sheets14%45%
Both teams scored71%45%
Over 2.5 goals71%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Maritimo to win11%9.497.50-20.9%
A Draw20%4.954.50-9.1%
FC Porto to win68%1.471.39-5.8%
Over 2.5 goals50%2.001.74-12.9%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.291.95-14.6%
Maritimo +1.553%1.901.63-14.3%
FC Porto -1.541%2.442.05-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%3.14
Both teams to score47%2.12
Maritimo or Draw33%3.08
FC Porto or Draw88%1.14
Maritimo to win and Over 2.56%15.57
FC Porto to win and Over 2.543%2.31
Maritimo clean sheet12%8.03
FC Porto clean sheet47%2.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-212.6%
0-111.6%
1-19.8%
1-29.6%
0-38.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Maritimo vs FC Porto?

Our prediction for Maritimo vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is FC Porto to win at 1.39.

What is the score prediction for Maritimo vs FC Porto?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-1. We expect Maritimo to score 0.8 goals and FC Porto 2.1.

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs FC Porto?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Maritimo last 7 games and 9 of FC Porto last 20.

How are Maritimo playing?

Maritimo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 8 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are FC Porto playing?

FC Porto have 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Maritimo vs FC Porto?

FC Porto to win at 1.39, with a 68% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maritimo against FC Porto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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