Predictions › France › Marseille vs Le Havre AC

Ligue 1Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 France time

Marseille vs Le Havre AC prediction

Stade Vélodrome

MarseilleHome

1.98 : 1.06

expected goals

Le Havre ACAway

58%Marseille

23%Draw

19%Le Havre AC

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Havre AC is Marseille to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Marseille to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Marseille 2.0, Le Havre AC 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Marseille to win and Over 2.5

40% chanceFair price 2.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Marseille 58%, the draw 23% and Le Havre AC 19%. The bookmakers agree and make Marseille the favourite at 1.57.
2
Recent form
Marseille took 3 points from their last 5 games and Le Havre AC took 2 from 5. Marseille come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Marseille won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Le Havre AC won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Marseille score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Le Havre AC score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Marseille games and 6 of Le Havre AC games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Marseille won 2 and Le Havre AC won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Le Havre AC 0, Marseille 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Marseillerecent form-3%
Le Havre ACrecent form-3%

Marseille form D W L L LLe Havre AC form D L D L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Marseille vs Le Havre AC: Marseille are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Marseille host Le Havre AC in the Ligue 1 on Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 at Stade Vélodrome. Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Havre AC is Marseille to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Marseille form

Marseille have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Le Havre AC form

Le Havre AC have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Marseille won 2, Le Havre AC won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Le Havre AC 0, Marseille 1.

Our call

We expect Marseille to score about 2.0 goals and Le Havre AC about 1.1. That points to Marseille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Marseille to win and Over 2.5 at 2.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Marseille	Le Havre AC
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	3
Draws	1	8
Losses	11	9
Goals scored	25	20
Goals conceded	29	27
Scored per game	1.3	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	5W 1D 4L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	3W 0D 7L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	45%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Marseille to win	54%	1.85	1.57	-14.9%
A Draw	21%	4.66	4.50	-3.5%
Le Havre AC to win	18%	5.49	4.70	-14.3%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.82	1.56	-14.4%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.41	2.30	-4.8%
Marseille -0.5	55%	1.82	1.53	-16.2%
Le Havre AC +0.5	42%	2.40	2.25	-6.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.78
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Marseille or Draw	81%	1.24
Le Havre AC or Draw	42%	2.39
Marseille to win and Over 2.5	40%	2.51
Le Havre AC to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.35
Marseille clean sheet	35%	2.88
Le Havre AC clean sheet	14%	7.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%

2-19.9%

2-09.4%

1-08.9%

3-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre AC?

Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Havre AC is Marseille to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Marseille vs Le Havre AC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Marseille to score 2.0 goals and Le Havre AC 1.1.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Le Havre AC?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Marseille last 20 games and 11 of Le Havre AC last 20.

How are Marseille playing?

How are Le Havre AC playing?

What happened when Marseille and Le Havre AC last met?

It ended Le Havre AC 0, Marseille 1. In the last 2 meetings Marseille won 2 and Le Havre AC won 0.

What is the best bet for Marseille vs Le Havre AC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Marseille against Le Havre AC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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