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Predictions › France › Marseille vs Le Mans
Ligue 1Sun 22 Nov, 19:45 France time

Marseille vs Le Mans prediction

Stade Vélodrome

MarseilleHome
2.35 : 1.07
expected goals
Le MansAway
65%Marseille
19%Draw
15%Le Mans
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Mans is Marseille to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Marseille to win
Chance
65%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Marseille 2.4, Le Mans 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Marseille to win and both score
34% chanceFair price 2.931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Marseille 65%, the draw 19% and Le Mans 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Marseille the favourite at 1.44.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Marseille took 12 points from their last 5 games and Le Mans took 2 from 5. Marseille come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Marseille won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Le Mans won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Marseille score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Le Mans score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Marseille games and 10 of Le Mans games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Marseillerecent form+4%
  • Le Mansrecent form-4%
Marseille form W W W W LLe Mans form D L D L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Marseille vs Le Mans: Marseille are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Marseille host Le Mans in the Ligue 1 on Sun 22 Nov, 19:45 at Stade Vélodrome. Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Mans is Marseille to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Marseille form

Marseille have 10 wins, 1 draw and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Le Mans form

Le Mans have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Marseille to score about 2.4 goals and Le Mans about 1.1. That points to Marseille to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Marseille to win and both score at 2.93.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MarseilleLe Mans
Games played2020
Wins107
Draws19
Losses94
Goals scored3232
Goals conceded2826
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record5W 1D 3L4W 4D 1L
Away record5W 0D 6L3W 5D 3L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Marseille to win63%1.581.44-8.6%
A Draw19%5.404.70-13.0%
Le Mans to win14%7.006.00-14.3%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.422.20-9.3%
Under 3.5 goals52%1.921.61-16.5%
Marseille -1.542%2.382.05-13.8%
Le Mans +1.551%1.961.63-16.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1.16
Over 2.5 goals66%1.51
Over 3.5 goals45%2.24
Both teams to score60%1.67
Marseille or Draw85%1.18
Le Mans or Draw35%2.89
Marseille to win and Over 2.549%2.03
Le Mans to win and Over 2.510%9.62
Marseille clean sheet34%2.91
Le Mans clean sheet10%10.49

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.7%
2-09.0%
1-18.7%
3-17.6%
1-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Marseille vs Le Mans?

Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Mans is Marseille to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Marseille vs Le Mans?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Marseille to score 2.4 goals and Le Mans 1.1.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Le Mans?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Marseille last 20 games and 12 of Le Mans last 20.

How are Marseille playing?

Marseille have 10 wins, 1 draw and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Le Mans playing?

Le Mans have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Marseille vs Le Mans?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Marseille against Le Mans. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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