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Predictions › Europa League › Marseille vs Olympiacos
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Marseille vs Olympiacos prediction

Stade Vélodrome

MarseilleHome
1.43 : 1.36
expected goals
OlympiacosAway
38%Marseille
27%Draw
35%Olympiacos
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Marseille vs Olympiacos is Marseille to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Marseille to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Marseille 1.4, Olympiacos 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Olympiacos to win
34% chancePrice 3.10+4.8% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Marseille 38%, the draw 27% and Olympiacos 35%. The bookmakers agree and make Marseille the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Marseille took 0 points from their last 5 games and Olympiacos took 10 from 5. Olympiacos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Marseille won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Olympiacos won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Marseille score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. Olympiacos score 0.9 and let in 0.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Marseille games and 4 of Olympiacos games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Marseillerecent form-7%
  • Olympiacosrecent form+3%
Marseille form L L L L LOlympiacos form W W L D WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Marseille vs Olympiacos: Marseille shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Marseille host Olympiacos in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Stade Vélodrome. Our prediction for Marseille vs Olympiacos is Marseille to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Marseille form

Marseille have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Olympiacos form

Olympiacos have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Marseille to score about 1.4 goals and Olympiacos about 1.4. That points to Marseille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Olympiacos to win at 3.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MarseilleOlympiacos
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws27
Losses114
Goals scored2519
Goals conceded3512
Scored per game1.30.9
Conceded per game1.80.6
Home record5W 2D 3L4W 3D 3L
Away record2W 0D 8L5W 4D 1L
Clean sheets20%55%
Both teams scored50%30%
Over 2.5 goals60%20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Marseille to win36%2.772.15-22.4%
A Draw26%3.793.60-5.1%
Olympiacos to win34%2.963.10+4.8%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.901.65-13.3%
Under 2.5 goals42%2.392.15-10.1%
Marseille -0.540%2.482.00-19.2%
Olympiacos +0.554%1.851.65-11.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.89
Over 3.5 goals31%3.27
Both teams to score57%1.75
Marseille or Draw65%1.54
Olympiacos or Draw62%1.62
Marseille to win and Over 2.524%4.20
Olympiacos to win and Over 2.522%4.59
Marseille clean sheet26%3.91
Olympiacos clean sheet24%4.17

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
2-18.5%
1-28.1%
1-08.0%
0-17.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Marseille vs Olympiacos?

Our prediction for Marseille vs Olympiacos is Marseille to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Marseille vs Olympiacos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Marseille to score 1.4 goals and Olympiacos 1.4.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Olympiacos?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Marseille last 20 games and 6 of Olympiacos last 20.

How are Marseille playing?

Marseille have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Olympiacos playing?

Olympiacos have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Marseille vs Olympiacos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Marseille against Olympiacos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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