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Predictions › Australia › Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC
A-LeagueSat 24 Oct, 08:40 Australia time

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC prediction

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Melbourne VictoryHome
1.67 : 1.11
expected goals
Melbourne City FCAway
50%Melbourne V
26%Draw
25%Melbourne City
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC is Melbourne Victory to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Melbourne Victory to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Melbourne Victory 1.7, Melbourne City FC 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Melbourne Victory 50%, the draw 26% and Melbourne City FC 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Melbourne Victory took 5 points from their last 5 games and Melbourne City FC took 10 from 5. Melbourne City FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Melbourne Victory won 6 of their last 12 games at home. Melbourne City FC won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Melbourne Victory score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.1. Melbourne City FC score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Melbourne Victory games and 10 of Melbourne City FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Melbourne Victory won 2 and Melbourne City FC won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Melbourne City FC 1, Melbourne Victory 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Melbourne Cityrecent form+1%
  • Melbourne Vrest between games-3%
  • Melbourne Cityrest between games-3%
Melbourne V form D D L W DMelbourne City form L L W W WHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC: Melbourne Victory are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Melbourne Victory host Melbourne City FC in the A-League on Sat 24 Oct, 08:40 at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium. Our prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC is Melbourne Victory to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Melbourne Victory form

Melbourne Victory have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Melbourne City FC form

Melbourne City FC have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Melbourne Victory won 2, Melbourne City FC won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Melbourne City FC 1, Melbourne Victory 3.

Our call

We expect Melbourne Victory to score about 1.7 goals and Melbourne City FC about 1.1. That points to Melbourne Victory to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.5 at 3.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Melbourne VMelbourne City
Games played2020
Wins107
Draws56
Losses57
Goals scored4025
Goals conceded2329
Scored per game2.01.3
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record6W 3D 3L5W 2D 5L
Away record4W 2D 2L2W 4D 2L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals30%3.29
Both teams to score55%1.81
Melbourne Victory or Draw75%1.32
Melbourne City FC or Draw50%2.00
Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.532%3.17
Melbourne City FC to win and Over 2.515%6.88
Melbourne Victory clean sheet33%3.03
Melbourne City FC clean sheet19%5.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
1-09.7%
2-19.6%
2-08.7%
0-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
A-League

South Melbourne Make History With Australia Cup Penalty Win Over Victory

South Melbourne became the first non A-League club to win the Australia Cup after beating Melbourne Victory on penalties.

10 Oct 2026
A-League

New Melbourne Victory Boss Savarese Ready for Historic Cup Final

New Melbourne Victory coach Giovanni Savarese reflects on his connection to Australian football culture ahead of a historic Australia Cup final.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC?

Our prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC is Melbourne Victory to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Melbourne Victory to score 1.7 goals and Melbourne City FC 1.1.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Melbourne Victory last 20 games and 12 of Melbourne City FC last 20.

How are Melbourne Victory playing?

Melbourne Victory have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Melbourne City FC playing?

Melbourne City FC have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City FC last met?

It ended Melbourne City FC 1, Melbourne Victory 3. In the last 3 meetings Melbourne Victory won 2 and Melbourne City FC won 1.

What is the best bet for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Melbourne V against Melbourne City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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