Predictions › Peru › Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

Peruvian Liga 1Fri 30 Oct, 00:30 Peru time

Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction

Estadio Monumental de la UNSA

MelgarHome

2.47 : 1.21

expected goals

Comerciantes UnidosAway

64%Melgar

19%Draw

17%Comer Unid

Eagle safe pickMelgar or Draw

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos is Melgar to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction: Melgar to win
Chance: 64%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Melgar 2.5, Comerciantes Unidos 1.2
Best bet: Melgar or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Melgar or Draw

83% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Melgar to win and both score

38% chanceFair price 2.621 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Melgar 64%, the draw 19% and Comerciantes Unidos 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Melgar took 11 points from their last 5 games and Comerciantes Unidos took 2 from 5. Melgar come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Melgar won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Comerciantes Unidos won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Melgar score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.0. Comerciantes Unidos score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Melgar games and 10 of Comerciantes Unidos games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Melgar won 0 and Comerciantes Unidos won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Comerciantes Unidos 1, Melgar 1.
6
The safest bet
Melgar or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Melgarrecent form+3%
Comer Unidrecent form-3%
Melgarrest between games-2%
Comer Unidrest between games-5%

Melgar form D D D W WComer Unid form D D L L DHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos: Melgar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Melgar host Comerciantes Unidos in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Fri 30 Oct, 00:30 at Estadio Monumental de la UNSA. Our prediction for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos is Melgar to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.21.

Melgar form

Melgar have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Comerciantes Unidos form

Comerciantes Unidos have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Melgar won 0, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Comerciantes Unidos 1, Melgar 1.

Our call

We expect Melgar to score about 2.5 goals and Comerciantes Unidos about 1.2. That points to Melgar to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Melgar to win and both score at 2.62.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Melgar	Comer Unid
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	4
Draws	6	7
Losses	3	9
Goals scored	38	25
Goals conceded	20	30
Scored per game	1.9	1.3
Conceded per game	1.0	1.5
Home record	7W 2D 1L	3W 4D 2L
Away record	4W 4D 2L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 3.5 goals	50%	1.99
Both teams to score	65%	1.54
Melgar or Draw	83%	1.20
Comerciantes Unidos or Draw	36%	2.81
Melgar to win and Over 2.5	51%	1.96
Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.15
Melgar clean sheet	30%	3.37
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	8%	11.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.3%

1-18.0%

2-07.7%

3-17.7%

3-06.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Our prediction for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos is Melgar to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Melgar to score 2.5 goals and Comerciantes Unidos 1.2.

Will both teams score in Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Melgar last 20 games and 12 of Comerciantes Unidos last 20.

How are Melgar playing?

How are Comerciantes Unidos playing?

What happened when Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos last met?

It ended Comerciantes Unidos 1, Melgar 1. In the last 2 meetings Melgar won 0 and Comerciantes Unidos won 0.

What is the best bet for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Melgar or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Melgar against Comer Unid. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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