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Predictions › Peru › Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 Peru time

Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

Estadio Monumental de la UNSA

MelgarHome
1.32 : 0.75
expected goals
Deportivo GarcilasoAway
50%Melgar
30%Draw
20%Garcilaso
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Melgar to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Melgar to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Melgar 1.3, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
39%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
16% chanceFair price 6.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Melgar 50%, the draw 30% and Deportivo Garcilaso 20%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Melgar took 8 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Garcilaso took 12 from 5. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Melgar won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo Garcilaso won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Melgar score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.0. Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Melgar games and 9 of Deportivo Garcilaso games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Melgar won 0 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Garcilaso 1, Melgar 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Melgarrecent form+1%
  • Garcilasorecent form+4%
Melgar form D W W L DGarcilaso form W L W W WHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Melgar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Melgar host Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Monumental de la UNSA. Our prediction for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Melgar to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Melgar form

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Deportivo Garcilaso form

Deportivo Garcilaso have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Melgar won 0, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Garcilaso 1, Melgar 0.

Our call

We expect Melgar to score about 1.3 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso about 0.8. That points to Melgar to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MelgarGarcilaso
Games played2020
Wins1013
Draws63
Losses44
Goals scored3433
Goals conceded2016
Scored per game1.71.6
Conceded per game1.00.8
Home record6W 2D 2L10W 0D 0L
Away record4W 4D 2L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%50%
Both teams scored65%40%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals62%1.62
Over 2.5 goals34%2.93
Over 3.5 goals15%6.45
Both teams to score39%2.55
Melgar or Draw80%1.26
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw50%1.98
Melgar to win and Over 2.523%4.43
Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.58%12.29
Melgar clean sheet47%2.11
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet27%3.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.0%
0-013.4%
1-113.2%
2-011.0%
0-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Our prediction for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Melgar to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Melgar to score 1.3 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8.

Will both teams score in Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Both teams to score has a 39% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Melgar last 20 games and 8 of Deportivo Garcilaso last 20.

How are Melgar playing?

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Deportivo Garcilaso playing?

Deportivo Garcilaso have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso last met?

It ended Deportivo Garcilaso 1, Melgar 0. In the last 2 meetings Melgar won 0 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1.

What is the best bet for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Melgar against Garcilaso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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