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Predictions › Peru › Melgar vs Juan Pablo II
Peruvian Liga 1Sat 7 Nov, 23:00 Peru time

Melgar vs Juan Pablo II prediction

Estadio Monumental de la UNSA

MelgarHome
2.53 : 1.06
expected goals
Juan Pablo IIAway
69%Melgar
18%Draw
13%Juan Pablo II
Eagle safe pickMelgar draw no bet
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Melgar vs Juan Pablo II is Melgar to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Melgar draw no bet at 1.19.

Prediction
Melgar to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Melgar 2.5, Juan Pablo II 1.1
Best bet
Melgar draw no bet at 1.19
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Melgar draw no bet
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Melgar to win and both score
37% chanceFair price 2.721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Melgar 69%, the draw 18% and Juan Pablo II 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Melgar took 11 points from their last 5 games and Juan Pablo II took 10 from 5. Melgar come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Melgar won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Juan Pablo II won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Melgar score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.0. Juan Pablo II score 1.5 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Melgar games and 9 of Juan Pablo II games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Melgar won 0 and Juan Pablo II won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Juan Pablo II 1, Melgar 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Melgar draw no bet has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Melgarrecent form+3%
  • Juan Pablo IIrecent form+1%
  • Juan Pablo IIrest between games-5%
Melgar form D W D D WJuan Pablo II form D L W D WHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Melgar vs Juan Pablo II: Melgar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Melgar host Juan Pablo II in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 7 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Monumental de la UNSA. Our prediction for Melgar vs Juan Pablo II is Melgar to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Melgar draw no bet at 1.19.

Melgar form

Melgar have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Juan Pablo II form

Juan Pablo II have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Melgar won 0, Juan Pablo II won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Juan Pablo II 1, Melgar 1.

Our call

We expect Melgar to score about 2.5 goals and Juan Pablo II about 1.1. That points to Melgar to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Melgar draw no bet at 1.19. Our bold bet is Melgar to win and both score at 2.72.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MelgarJuan Pablo II
Games played2020
Wins117
Draws66
Losses37
Goals scored3730
Goals conceded2030
Scored per game1.91.5
Conceded per game1.01.5
Home record7W 2D 1L5W 3D 2L
Away record4W 4D 2L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.44
Over 3.5 goals48%2.07
Both teams to score61%1.65
Melgar or Draw87%1.16
Juan Pablo II or Draw31%3.20
Melgar to win and Over 2.553%1.87
Juan Pablo II to win and Over 2.59%10.61
Melgar clean sheet35%2.89
Juan Pablo II clean sheet8%12.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.4%
2-08.8%
3-17.9%
1-17.8%
3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Melgar vs Juan Pablo II?

Our prediction for Melgar vs Juan Pablo II is Melgar to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Melgar draw no bet at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Melgar vs Juan Pablo II?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 3-1. We expect Melgar to score 2.5 goals and Juan Pablo II 1.1.

Will both teams score in Melgar vs Juan Pablo II?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Melgar last 20 games and 11 of Juan Pablo II last 20.

How are Melgar playing?

Melgar have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Juan Pablo II playing?

Juan Pablo II have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Melgar and Juan Pablo II last met?

It ended Juan Pablo II 1, Melgar 1. In the last 1 meeting Melgar won 0 and Juan Pablo II won 0.

What is the best bet for Melgar vs Juan Pablo II?

Melgar draw no bet at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Melgar against Juan Pablo II. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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