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Predictions › Peru › Melgar vs Sport Boys
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 20 Sept, 01:15 Peru time

Melgar vs Sport Boys prediction

Estadio Monumental de la UNSA

MelgarHome
1.85 : 0.92
expected goals
Sport BoysAway
59%Melgar
24%Draw
18%Sport Boys
Eagle safe pickMelgar or Draw
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Melgar vs Sport Boys is Melgar to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction
Melgar to win
Chance
59%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Melgar 1.9, Sport Boys 0.9
Best bet
Melgar or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Melgar or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Melgar to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Melgar 59%, the draw 24% and Sport Boys 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Melgar took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sport Boys took 8 from 5. Melgar come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Melgar won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Sport Boys won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Melgar score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. Sport Boys score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Melgar games and 8 of Sport Boys games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Melgar won 1 and Sport Boys won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sport Boys 1, Melgar 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Melgar or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Melgarrecent form+3%
  • Sport Boysrecent form+1%
  • Melgarrest between games-5%
Melgar form W W L D WSport Boys form L W W D DHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Melgar vs Sport Boys: Melgar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Melgar host Sport Boys in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 20 Sept, 01:15 at Estadio Monumental de la UNSA. Our prediction for Melgar vs Sport Boys is Melgar to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.17.

Melgar form

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Sport Boys form

Sport Boys have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Melgar won 1, Sport Boys won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sport Boys 1, Melgar 3.

Our call

We expect Melgar to score about 1.9 goals and Sport Boys about 0.9. That points to Melgar to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Melgar to win and Over 2.5 at 2.92.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MelgarSport Boys
Games played2020
Wins108
Draws65
Losses47
Goals scored3325
Goals conceded1922
Scored per game1.61.3
Conceded per game0.91.1
Home record6W 2D 2L6W 3D 1L
Away record4W 4D 2L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets30%45%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals50%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.32
Both teams to score51%1.95
Melgar or Draw82%1.21
Sport Boys or Draw41%2.42
Melgar to win and Over 2.537%2.70
Sport Boys to win and Over 2.510%10.13
Melgar clean sheet40%2.50
Sport Boys clean sheet16%6.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-011.0%
2-010.7%
2-19.9%
0-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Our prediction for Melgar vs Sport Boys is Melgar to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Melgar vs Sport Boys?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Melgar to score 1.9 goals and Sport Boys 0.9.

Will both teams score in Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Melgar last 20 games and 9 of Sport Boys last 20.

How are Melgar playing?

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Sport Boys playing?

Sport Boys have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Melgar and Sport Boys last met?

It ended Sport Boys 1, Melgar 3. In the last 2 meetings Melgar won 1 and Sport Boys won 1.

What is the best bet for Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Melgar or Draw at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Melgar against Sport Boys. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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