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Predictions › United States › Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks
NBAMon 5 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks prediction

State Farm Arena

Memphis GrizzliesAway
114.2 : 122.6
projected points
Atlanta HawksHome
25%Grizzlies
75%Hawks
Eagle safe pickHawks to win
-307

Quick answer

Our prediction for Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 75% chance. We project Memphis Grizzlies 114.2 and Atlanta Hawks 122.6. Our best bet is Hawks to win at -307.

Prediction
Atlanta Hawks to win
Chance
75%
Projected score
Memphis Grizzlies 114, Atlanta Hawks 123
Projected total
236.8 points
Best bet
Hawks to win at -307

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Hawks to win
75% chanceFair price -3072 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Hawks 75% and Memphis Grizzlies 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Hawks won 2 of their last 5 and Memphis Grizzlies won 0 of their last 5. Atlanta Hawks come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Hawks won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Memphis Grizzlies won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Hawks score 115.2 points a game and let in 114.8. Memphis Grizzlies score 111.6 and let in 129.6. Their recent games average 230.1 and 241.2 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Atlanta Hawks won 3 and Memphis Grizzlies won 0. The last one ended Atlanta Hawks 146, Memphis Grizzlies 107.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Hawks to win has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hawksrest between games-3%
  • Grizzliesrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta Hawks are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Hawks host Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA on Mon 5 Oct, 19:00 at State Farm Arena. Our prediction for Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 75% chance. We project Memphis Grizzlies 114.2 and Atlanta Hawks 122.6. Our best bet is Hawks to win at -307.

Atlanta Hawks form

Atlanta Hawks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2304 points scored and 2297 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Memphis Grizzlies form

Memphis Grizzlies have 2 wins and 18 losses in their last 20 games, with 2232 points scored and 2591 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins and 10 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Atlanta Hawks won 3, Memphis Grizzlies won 0. Last time out it finished Atlanta Hawks 146, Memphis Grizzlies 107.

Our call

We expect Memphis Grizzlies to score about 114.2 points and Atlanta Hawks about 122.6. That points to Atlanta Hawks to win. Our safest bet is Hawks to win at -307.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HawksGrizzlies
Games played2020
Wins112
Losses918
Points scored23042232
Points conceded22972591
Scored per game115.2111.6
Conceded per game114.8129.6
Home record6W 3L2W 8L
Away record5W 6L0W 10L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Hawks spreadCoversFair
Hawks -14.531%+222
Hawks -11.540%+150
Hawks -8.549%+102
Hawks -5.559%-144
Hawks -2.568%-212
Total pointsOverUnder
230.564%36%
233.557%43%
236.551%49%
239.544%56%
242.538%62%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Hawks +3.5 wins if Hawks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Hawks Trade Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to Hornets for Dorian Finney-Smith

The Atlanta Hawks are trading Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to the Charlotte Hornets to acquire veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks?

Our prediction for Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 75% chance. We project Memphis Grizzlies 114.2 and Atlanta Hawks 122.6. Our best bet is Hawks to win at -307.

What is the projected score for Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks?

We project Memphis Grizzlies 114.2 and Atlanta Hawks 122.6, about 236.8 points in total.

How are Atlanta Hawks playing?

Atlanta Hawks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2304 points scored and 2297 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Memphis Grizzlies playing?

Memphis Grizzlies have 2 wins and 18 losses in their last 20 games, with 2232 points scored and 2591 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins and 10 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies last met?

It ended Atlanta Hawks 146, Memphis Grizzlies 107. In the last 3 meetings Atlanta Hawks won 3 and Memphis Grizzlies won 0.

What is the best bet for Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks?

Hawks to win at -307, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hawks against Grizzlies. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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