Predictions › France › Metz vs Boulogne

Ligue 2Fri 20 Nov, 19:00 France time

Metz vs Boulogne prediction

Stade Saint-Symphorien

MetzHome

1.42 : 1.12

expected goals

BoulogneAway

43%Metz

28%Draw

29%Boulogne

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Metz vs Boulogne is Metz to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Metz to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Metz 1.4, Boulogne 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Metz 43%, the draw 28% and Boulogne 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Metz the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Metz took 7 points from their last 5 games and Boulogne took 8 from 5. Boulogne come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Metz won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Boulogne won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Metz score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.8. Boulogne score 0.8 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Metz games and 5 of Boulogne games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Boulognerecent form+1%

Metz form W L D W LBoulogne form W L D W DHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Metz vs Boulogne: Metz shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Metz host Boulogne in the Ligue 2 on Fri 20 Nov, 19:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Our prediction for Metz vs Boulogne is Metz to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Metz form

Metz have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Boulogne form

Boulogne have 3 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Metz to score about 1.4 goals and Boulogne about 1.1. That points to Metz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.53.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Metz	Boulogne
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	3
Draws	9	10
Losses	7	7
Goals scored	27	15
Goals conceded	35	19
Scored per game	1.4	0.8
Conceded per game	1.8	0.9
Home record	3W 3D 4L	1W 6D 3L
Away record	1W 6D 3L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	45%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Metz to win	41%	2.41	2.10	-13.0%
A Draw	27%	3.65	3.35	-8.2%
Boulogne to win	29%	3.50	3.30	-5.6%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18	1.83	-16.0%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.12	1.83	-13.4%
Metz -0.5	43%	2.34	2.00	-14.7%
Boulogne +0.5	50%	1.98	1.67	-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.97
Both teams to score	52%	1.93
Metz or Draw	71%	1.41
Boulogne or Draw	57%	1.76
Metz to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.04
Boulogne to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.25
Metz clean sheet	33%	3.07
Boulogne clean sheet	24%	4.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

1-010.4%

2-18.9%

0-08.6%

0-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Metz vs Boulogne?

Our prediction for Metz vs Boulogne is Metz to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Metz vs Boulogne?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Metz to score 1.4 goals and Boulogne 1.1.

Will both teams score in Metz vs Boulogne?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Metz last 20 games and 8 of Boulogne last 20.

How are Metz playing?

How are Boulogne playing?

What is the best bet for Metz vs Boulogne?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Metz against Boulogne. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.