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Predictions › France › Metz vs Pau
Ligue 2Fri 30 Oct, 19:00 France time

Metz vs Pau prediction

Stade Saint-Symphorien

MetzHome
2.26 : 1.50
expected goals
PauAway
54%Metz
21%Draw
25%Pau
Eagle safe pickMetz or Draw
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Metz vs Pau is Metz to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Metz or Draw at 1.32.

Prediction
Metz to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Metz 2.3, Pau 1.5
Best bet
Metz or Draw at 1.32
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Metz or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Metz to win and Over 2.5
44% chanceFair price 2.271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Metz 54%, the draw 21% and Pau 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Metz took 7 points from their last 5 games and Pau took 10 from 5. Pau come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Metz won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Pau won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Metz score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.9. Pau score 1.3 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Metz games and 11 of Pau games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Metz or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Metzrecent form-1%
  • Paurecent form+1%
Metz form D L D L WPau form D W W L DHome edge in this league 9% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Metz vs Pau: Metz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Metz host Pau in the Ligue 2 on Fri 30 Oct, 19:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Our prediction for Metz vs Pau is Metz to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Metz or Draw at 1.32.

Metz form

Metz have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Pau form

Pau have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Metz to score about 2.3 goals and Pau about 1.5. That points to Metz to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Metz or Draw at 1.32. Our bold bet is Metz to win and Over 2.5 at 2.27.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MetzPau
Games played2020
Wins37
Draws84
Losses99
Goals scored2525
Goals conceded3736
Scored per game1.31.3
Conceded per game1.91.8
Home record3W 3D 5L3W 3D 4L
Away record0W 5D 4L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals89%1.12
Over 2.5 goals72%1.38
Over 3.5 goals52%1.93
Both teams to score70%1.43
Metz or Draw75%1.33
Pau or Draw46%2.18
Metz to win and Over 2.543%2.30
Pau to win and Over 2.519%5.23
Metz clean sheet22%4.49
Pau clean sheet10%9.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-18.9%
1-18.4%
3-16.7%
2-26.7%
2-05.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Metz vs Pau?

Our prediction for Metz vs Pau is Metz to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Metz or Draw at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Metz vs Pau?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 3-1. We expect Metz to score 2.3 goals and Pau 1.5.

Will both teams score in Metz vs Pau?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Metz last 20 games and 10 of Pau last 20.

How are Metz playing?

Metz have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Pau playing?

Pau have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Metz vs Pau?

Metz or Draw at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Metz against Pau. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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