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Predictions › France › Metz vs Saint-Étienne
Ligue 2Sat 19 Sept, 18:00 France time

Metz vs Saint-Étienne prediction

Stade Saint-Symphorien

MetzHome
1.41 : 1.35
expected goals
Saint-ÉtienneAway
38%Metz
27%Draw
35%St. Étienne
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Metz vs Saint-Étienne is Metz to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Metz to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Metz 1.4, Saint-Étienne 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Metz 38%, the draw 27% and Saint-Étienne 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Metz took 9 points from their last 5 games and Saint-Étienne took 12 from 5. Saint-Étienne come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Metz won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Saint-Étienne won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Metz score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.8. Saint-Étienne score 2.0 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Metz games and 14 of Saint-Étienne games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Metzrecent form+3%
  • St. Étiennerecent form+4%
  • St. Étiennerest between games-5%
Metz form W D D D WSt. Étienne form L W W W WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Metz vs Saint-Étienne: Metz shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Metz host Saint-Étienne in the Ligue 2 on Sat 19 Sept, 18:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Our prediction for Metz vs Saint-Étienne is Metz to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Metz form

Metz have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, W, newest first.

Saint-Étienne form

Saint-Étienne have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Metz to score about 1.4 goals and Saint-Étienne about 1.4. That points to Metz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MetzSt. Étienne
Games played2020
Wins213
Draws82
Losses105
Goals scored1940
Goals conceded3518
Scored per game0.92.0
Conceded per game1.80.9
Home record2W 3D 6L9W 0D 2L
Away record0W 5D 4L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets25%40%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.92
Over 3.5 goals30%3.35
Both teams to score57%1.77
Metz or Draw65%1.54
Saint-Étienne or Draw62%1.61
Metz to win and Over 2.523%4.27
Saint-Étienne to win and Over 2.521%4.66
Metz clean sheet26%3.84
Saint-Étienne clean sheet24%4.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
2-18.5%
1-08.2%
1-28.1%
0-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Metz vs Saint-Étienne?

Our prediction for Metz vs Saint-Étienne is Metz to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Metz vs Saint-Étienne?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Metz to score 1.4 goals and Saint-Étienne 1.4.

Will both teams score in Metz vs Saint-Étienne?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Metz last 20 games and 9 of Saint-Étienne last 20.

How are Metz playing?

Metz have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Saint-Étienne playing?

Saint-Étienne have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Metz vs Saint-Étienne?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Metz against St. Étienne. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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