Predictions › France › Metz vs Sochaux

Ligue 2Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 France time

Metz vs Sochaux prediction

Stade Saint-Symphorien

MetzHome

1.28 : 0.98

expected goals

SochauxAway

43%Metz

30%Draw

28%Sochaux

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Metz vs Sochaux is Metz to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Metz to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Metz 1.3, Sochaux 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Metz 43%, the draw 30% and Sochaux 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Metz took 6 points from their last 5 games and Sochaux took 9 from 5. Sochaux come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Metz won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Sochaux won 0 of their last 4 on the road.
4
Goals
Metz score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. Sochaux score 0.6 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Metz games and 1 of Sochaux games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sochauxrecent form+3%

Metz form D L W D DSochaux form D W D D WHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Metz vs Sochaux: Metz shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Metz host Sochaux in the Ligue 2 on Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Our prediction for Metz vs Sochaux is Metz to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Metz form

Metz have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Sochaux form

Sochaux have 2 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 7 games, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Metz to score about 1.3 goals and Sochaux about 1.0. That points to Metz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Metz	Sochaux
Games played	20	7
Wins	2	2
Draws	8	4
Losses	10	1
Goals scored	21	4
Goals conceded	37	5
Scored per game	1.1	0.6
Conceded per game	1.9	0.7
Home record	2W 3D 6L	2W 0D 1L
Away record	0W 5D 4L	0W 4D 0L
Clean sheets	20%	57%
Both teams scored	55%	29%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	14%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.50
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.55
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.23
Both teams to score	46%	2.19
Metz or Draw	72%	1.38
Sochaux or Draw	57%	1.74
Metz to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.69
Sochaux to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.62
Metz clean sheet	38%	2.65
Sochaux clean sheet	28%	3.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

1-012.6%

0-011.3%

0-19.5%

2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Metz vs Sochaux?

Our prediction for Metz vs Sochaux is Metz to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Metz vs Sochaux?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Metz to score 1.3 goals and Sochaux 1.0.

Will both teams score in Metz vs Sochaux?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Metz last 20 games and 2 of Sochaux last 7.

How are Metz playing?

How are Sochaux playing?

What is the best bet for Metz vs Sochaux?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Metz against Sochaux. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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