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Predictions › United States › Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
NFLSun 22 Nov, 13:00 United States time

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills prediction

Highmark Stadium

Miami DolphinsAway
15.8 : 30.9
projected points
Buffalo BillsHome
10%Dolphins
90%Bills
Eagle safe pickDolphins +23.5
-291

Quick answer

Our prediction for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills is Buffalo Bills to win, with a 90% chance. We project Miami Dolphins 15.8 and Buffalo Bills 30.9. Our best bet is Dolphins +23.5 at -291.

Prediction
Buffalo Bills to win
Chance
90%
Projected score
Miami Dolphins 16, Buffalo Bills 31
Projected total
46.7 points
Best bet
Dolphins +23.5 at -291

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Dolphins +23.5
74% chanceFair price -2911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Buffalo Bills 90% and Miami Dolphins 10%. The bookmakers agree and make Buffalo Bills the favourite at -1786.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Buffalo Bills won 4 of their last 5 and Miami Dolphins won 1 of their last 5. Buffalo Bills come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Buffalo Bills won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Dolphins won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Buffalo Bills score 29.5 points a game and let in 21.4. Miami Dolphins score 16.1 and let in 23.6. Their recent games average 50.9 and 39.6 points in total, and the market line is 46.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Buffalo Bills won 1 and Miami Dolphins won 1. The last one ended Miami Dolphins 30, Buffalo Bills 13.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Dolphins +23.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dolphinsteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills: Buffalo Bills are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Buffalo Bills host Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sun 22 Nov, 13:00 at Highmark Stadium. Our prediction for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills is Buffalo Bills to win, with a 90% chance. We project Miami Dolphins 15.8 and Buffalo Bills 30.9. Our best bet is Dolphins +23.5 at -291.

Buffalo Bills form

Buffalo Bills have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 590 points scored and 428 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Miami Dolphins form

Miami Dolphins have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 321 points scored and 472 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Buffalo Bills won 1, Miami Dolphins won 1. Last time out it finished Miami Dolphins 30, Buffalo Bills 13.

Our call

We expect Miami Dolphins to score about 15.8 points and Buffalo Bills about 30.9. That points to Buffalo Bills to win. Our safest bet is Dolphins +23.5 at -291.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BillsDolphins
Games played2020
Wins166
Losses414
Points scored590321
Points conceded428472
Scored per game29.516.1
Conceded per game21.423.6
Home record7W 2L4W 8L
Away record9W 2L2W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Bills to win90%-867-1786-5.3%
Dolphins to win9%+959+1000+3.8%
Bills -16.543%+131-110-17.4%
Dolphins +16.550%+101-110-5.1%
Over 46.5 points47%+113-110-10.4%
Under 46.5 points46%+117-110-12.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Bills spreadCoversFair
Bills -22.529%+245
Bills -18.540%+151
Bills -15.549%+106
Bills -12.557%-135
Bills -8.569%-218
Total pointsOverUnder
39.571%29%
43.560%40%
46.551%49%
49.541%59%
53.530%70%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Bills +3.5 wins if Bills win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Amani Hooker Ready for Bills Debut Against Jets

Amani Hooker says he is ready to step onto the field for Buffalo this Sunday following his trade from Tennessee.

11 Nov 2026
NFL

Dolphins Place Quarterback Malik Willis on Injured Reserve Due to Groin Injury

Miami Dolphins starting quarterback Malik Willis will miss at least four weeks after being placed on injured reserve with a groin issue.

10 Nov 2026
NFL

Josh Allen and Bills Grind Out 23-6 Victory Over Vikings

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills survived a tough defensive battle to beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-6 on Monday night.

10 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills?

Our prediction for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills is Buffalo Bills to win, with a 90% chance. We project Miami Dolphins 15.8 and Buffalo Bills 30.9. Our best bet is Dolphins +23.5 at -291.

What is the projected score for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills?

We project Miami Dolphins 15.8 and Buffalo Bills 30.9, about 46.7 points in total.

How are Buffalo Bills playing?

Buffalo Bills have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 590 points scored and 428 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Miami Dolphins playing?

Miami Dolphins have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 321 points scored and 472 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins last met?

It ended Miami Dolphins 30, Buffalo Bills 13. In the last 2 meetings Buffalo Bills won 1 and Miami Dolphins won 1.

What is the best bet for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills?

Dolphins +23.5 at -291, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bills against Dolphins. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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