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Predictions › United States › Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks
NBAWed 28 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks prediction

State Farm Arena

Miami HeatAway
118.7 : 119.6
projected points
Atlanta HawksHome
50%Heat
50%Hawks
Eagle safe pickHawks +7.5
-312

Quick answer

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 50% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 118.7 and Atlanta Hawks 119.6. Our best bet is Hawks +7.5 at -312.

Prediction
Atlanta Hawks to win
Chance
50%
Projected score
Miami Heat 119, Atlanta Hawks 120
Projected total
238.4 points
Best bet
Hawks +7.5 at -312

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Hawks +7.5
76% chanceFair price -3122 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Hawks 50% and Miami Heat 50%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Hawks won 4 of their last 5 and Miami Heat won 3 of their last 5. Atlanta Hawks come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Hawks won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Heat won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Hawks score 114.3 points a game and let in 115.0. Miami Heat score 124.5 and let in 126.5. Their recent games average 229.3 and 250.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Atlanta Hawks won 2 and Miami Heat won 3. The last one ended Miami Heat 143, Atlanta Hawks 117.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Hawks +7.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hawksrest between games-2%
  • Heatrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta Hawks shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Hawks host Miami Heat in the NBA on Wed 28 Oct, 19:00 at State Farm Arena. Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 50% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 118.7 and Atlanta Hawks 119.6. Our best bet is Hawks +7.5 at -312.

Atlanta Hawks form

Atlanta Hawks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2285 points scored and 2300 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2489 points scored and 2530 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Atlanta Hawks won 2, Miami Heat won 3. Last time out it finished Miami Heat 143, Atlanta Hawks 117.

Our call

We expect Miami Heat to score about 118.7 points and Atlanta Hawks about 119.6. That points to Atlanta Hawks to win. Our safest bet is Hawks +7.5 at -312.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HawksHeat
Games played2020
Wins118
Losses912
Points scored22852489
Points conceded23002530
Scored per game114.3124.5
Conceded per game115.0126.5
Home record5W 4L5W 4L
Away record6W 5L3W 8L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Hawks spreadCoversFair
Hawks -6.533%+206
Hawks -3.542%+139
Hawks -0.551%-105
Hawks +2.561%-155
Hawks +5.570%-229
Total pointsOverUnder
232.563%37%
235.556%44%
238.550%50%
241.543%57%
244.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Hawks +3.5 wins if Hawks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Hawks Legend and Hall of Famer Cliff Hagan Dies at 94

Hall of Fame forward Cliff Hagan, who won an NBA title with the Hawks and starred at Kentucky, has died at 94.

16 Oct 2026
NBA

Hawks Trade Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to Hornets for Dorian Finney-Smith

The Atlanta Hawks are trading Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to the Charlotte Hornets to acquire veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks?

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 50% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 118.7 and Atlanta Hawks 119.6. Our best bet is Hawks +7.5 at -312.

What is the projected score for Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks?

We project Miami Heat 118.7 and Atlanta Hawks 119.6, about 238.4 points in total.

How are Atlanta Hawks playing?

Atlanta Hawks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2285 points scored and 2300 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2489 points scored and 2530 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat last met?

It ended Miami Heat 143, Atlanta Hawks 117. In the last 5 meetings Atlanta Hawks won 2 and Miami Heat won 3.

What is the best bet for Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks?

Hawks +7.5 at -312, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hawks against Heat. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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