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Predictions › United States › Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic
NBAFri 16 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic prediction

Kia Center

Miami HeatAway
116.8 : 117.7
projected points
Orlando MagicHome
51%Heat
49%Magic
Eagle safe pickMagic +7.5
-307

Quick answer

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic is Miami Heat to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 116.8 and Orlando Magic 117.7. Our best bet is Magic +7.5 at -307.

Prediction
Miami Heat to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
Miami Heat 117, Orlando Magic 118
Projected total
234.5 points
Best bet
Magic +7.5 at -307

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Magic +7.5
75% chanceFair price -3072 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heat to win
44% chanceFair price +1261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Orlando Magic 49% and Miami Heat 51%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Orlando Magic won 2 of their last 5 and Miami Heat won 3 of their last 5. Miami Heat come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Orlando Magic won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Heat won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Orlando Magic score 109.8 points a game and let in 111.3. Miami Heat score 123.9 and let in 124.4. Their recent games average 221.2 and 248.3 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Orlando Magic won 5 and Miami Heat won 0. The last one ended Miami Heat 117, Orlando Magic 121.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Magic +7.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Magicrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic: Miami Heat shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Orlando Magic host Miami Heat in the NBA on Fri 16 Oct, 19:00 at Kia Center. Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic is Miami Heat to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 116.8 and Orlando Magic 117.7. Our best bet is Magic +7.5 at -307.

Orlando Magic form

Orlando Magic have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2197 points scored and 2227 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2478 points scored and 2488 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Orlando Magic won 5, Miami Heat won 0. Last time out it finished Miami Heat 117, Orlando Magic 121.

Our call

We expect Miami Heat to score about 116.8 points and Orlando Magic about 117.7. That points to Miami Heat to win. Our safest bet is Magic +7.5 at -307. Our bold bet is Heat to win at +126.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MagicHeat
Games played2020
Wins119
Losses911
Points scored21972478
Points conceded22272488
Scored per game109.8123.9
Conceded per game111.3124.4
Home record7W 2L6W 4L
Away record4W 7L3W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Magic spreadCoversFair
Magic -6.532%+208
Magic -3.542%+141
Magic -0.551%-104
Magic +2.560%-153
Magic +5.569%-226
Total pointsOverUnder
228.563%37%
231.557%43%
234.550%50%
237.543%57%
240.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Magic +3.5 wins if Magic win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic?

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic is Miami Heat to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 116.8 and Orlando Magic 117.7. Our best bet is Magic +7.5 at -307.

What is the projected score for Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic?

We project Miami Heat 116.8 and Orlando Magic 117.7, about 234.5 points in total.

How are Orlando Magic playing?

Orlando Magic have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2197 points scored and 2227 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2478 points scored and 2488 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Orlando Magic and Miami Heat last met?

It ended Miami Heat 117, Orlando Magic 121. In the last 5 meetings Orlando Magic won 5 and Miami Heat won 0.

What is the best bet for Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic?

Magic +7.5 at -307, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Magic against Heat. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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