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Predictions › United States › Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors
NBASat 3 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors prediction

Videotron Centre

Miami HeatAway
113.9 : 118.2
projected points
Toronto RaptorsHome
37%Heat
63%Raptors
Eagle safe pickHeat +12.5
-299

Quick answer

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors is Toronto Raptors to win, with a 63% chance. We project Miami Heat 113.9 and Toronto Raptors 118.2. Our best bet is Heat +12.5 at -299.

Prediction
Toronto Raptors to win
Chance
63%
Projected score
Miami Heat 114, Toronto Raptors 118
Projected total
232.1 points
Best bet
Heat +12.5 at -299

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heat +12.5
75% chanceFair price -2991 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heat to win
34% chanceFair price +1961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toronto Raptors 63% and Miami Heat 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toronto Raptors won 3 of their last 5 and Miami Heat won 2 of their last 5. Toronto Raptors come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toronto Raptors won 8 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Heat won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Toronto Raptors score 115.2 points a game and let in 111.3. Miami Heat score 123.8 and let in 125.2. Their recent games average 226.4 and 249.0 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Toronto Raptors won 4 and Miami Heat won 0. The last one ended Toronto Raptors 128, Miami Heat 114.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heat +12.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Raptorsrest between games-3%
  • Heatrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors: Toronto Raptors are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toronto Raptors host Miami Heat in the NBA on Sat 3 Oct, 19:00 at Videotron Centre. Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors is Toronto Raptors to win, with a 63% chance. We project Miami Heat 113.9 and Toronto Raptors 118.2. Our best bet is Heat +12.5 at -299.

Toronto Raptors form

Toronto Raptors have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2304 points scored and 2225 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2477 points scored and 2503 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Toronto Raptors won 4, Miami Heat won 0. Last time out it finished Toronto Raptors 128, Miami Heat 114.

Our call

We expect Miami Heat to score about 113.9 points and Toronto Raptors about 118.2. That points to Toronto Raptors to win. Our safest bet is Heat +12.5 at -299. Our bold bet is Heat to win at +196.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RaptorsHeat
Games played2020
Wins109
Losses1011
Points scored23042477
Points conceded22252503
Scored per game115.2123.8
Conceded per game111.3125.2
Home record8W 1L6W 4L
Away record2W 9L3W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Raptors spreadCoversFair
Raptors -10.531%+222
Raptors -7.540%+150
Raptors -4.549%+102
Raptors -1.559%-143
Raptors +1.568%-212
Total pointsOverUnder
226.562%38%
229.556%44%
232.549%51%
235.542%58%
238.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Raptors +3.5 wins if Raptors win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Kawhi Leonard Returns to Toronto in Blockbuster Trade

The Toronto Raptors have finalized a trade to bring Kawhi Leonard back, boosting their chances of a deep playoff run.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors?

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors is Toronto Raptors to win, with a 63% chance. We project Miami Heat 113.9 and Toronto Raptors 118.2. Our best bet is Heat +12.5 at -299.

What is the projected score for Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors?

We project Miami Heat 113.9 and Toronto Raptors 118.2, about 232.1 points in total.

How are Toronto Raptors playing?

Toronto Raptors have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2304 points scored and 2225 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2477 points scored and 2503 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat last met?

It ended Toronto Raptors 128, Miami Heat 114. In the last 4 meetings Toronto Raptors won 4 and Miami Heat won 0.

What is the best bet for Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors?

Heat +12.5 at -299, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Raptors against Heat. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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