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Predictions › United States › Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs
MLBTue 22 Sept, 19:40 United States time

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs prediction

Wrigley Field

Miami MarlinsAway
4.5 : 5.7
projected runs
Chicago CubsHome
36%Marlins
64%Cubs
Eagle safe pickMarlins +3.5
-251

Quick answer

Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs is Chicago Cubs to win, with a 64% chance. We project Miami Marlins 4.5 and Chicago Cubs 5.7. Our best bet is Marlins +3.5 at -251.

Prediction
Chicago Cubs to win
Chance
64%
Projected score
Miami Marlins 4, Chicago Cubs 6
Projected total
10.1 runs
Best bet
Marlins +3.5 at -251

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Marlins +3.5
72% chanceFair price -2511 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Marlins to win
35% chanceFair price +1831 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chicago Cubs 64% and Miami Marlins 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chicago Cubs won 2 of their last 5 and Miami Marlins won 1 of their last 5. Chicago Cubs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chicago Cubs won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Marlins won 3 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Chicago Cubs score 6.8 runs a game and let in 4.8. Miami Marlins score 4.8 and let in 5.4. Their recent games average 11.5 and 10.3 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Chicago Cubs won 2 and Miami Marlins won 1. The last one ended Miami Marlins 10, Chicago Cubs 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Marlins +3.5 has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cubsrest between games-5%
  • Marlinsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chicago Cubs host Miami Marlins in the MLB on Tue 22 Sept, 19:40 at Wrigley Field. Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs is Chicago Cubs to win, with a 64% chance. We project Miami Marlins 4.5 and Chicago Cubs 5.7. Our best bet is Marlins +3.5 at -251.

Chicago Cubs form

Chicago Cubs have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 135 runs scored and 95 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Miami Marlins form

Miami Marlins have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 97 runs scored and 108 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Chicago Cubs won 2, Miami Marlins won 1. Last time out it finished Miami Marlins 10, Chicago Cubs 3.

Our call

We expect Miami Marlins to score about 4.5 runs and Chicago Cubs about 5.7. That points to Chicago Cubs to win. Our safest bet is Marlins +3.5 at -251. Our bold bet is Marlins to win at +183.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CubsMarlins
Games played2020
Wins98
Losses1112
Runs scored13597
Runs conceded95108
Scored per game6.84.8
Conceded per game4.85.4
Home record5W 4L5W 8L
Away record4W 7L3W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Cubs spreadCoversFair
Cubs -3.529%+243
Cubs -2.538%+165
Cubs -1.547%+112
Cubs -0.557%-130
Cubs +0.566%-191
Total runsOverUnder
8.564%36%
9.556%44%
10.547%53%
11.538%62%
12.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Cubs +3.5 wins if Cubs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs?

Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs is Chicago Cubs to win, with a 64% chance. We project Miami Marlins 4.5 and Chicago Cubs 5.7. Our best bet is Marlins +3.5 at -251.

What is the projected score for Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs?

We project Miami Marlins 4.5 and Chicago Cubs 5.7, about 10.1 runs in total.

How are Chicago Cubs playing?

Chicago Cubs have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 135 runs scored and 95 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Miami Marlins playing?

Miami Marlins have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 97 runs scored and 108 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins last met?

It ended Miami Marlins 10, Chicago Cubs 3. In the last 3 meetings Chicago Cubs won 2 and Miami Marlins won 1.

What is the best bet for Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs?

Marlins +3.5 at -251, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cubs against Marlins. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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